Player prop research, answered
Each answer is under 100 words, with the follow-up questions underneath.
What is a hit rate in sports betting?
A hit rate is how often a player cleared a prop line in their recent games. If a player scored more than 22.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games, his last-10 hit rate on over 22.5 points is 8 of 10, or 80%. Hit rates describe what already happened. They are a research starting point, not a prediction, and they don't account for injuries, minutes or matchups on their own.
How do you research NFL player props?
Start with the player's role: snaps, targets or carries, and whether anything changed this week (injuries, depth chart). Then check how often he cleared the line in his last 10 and last 5 games, the opponent's defense against that stat, the likely game script (spread and total), weather for outdoor games, and finally the price at FanDuel or DraftKings. A strong hit rate with a changed role is a weaker case than it looks.
What does L10 vs L5 mean in player props?
L10 means the player's last 10 games and L5 means his last 5. On a prop, "L10 8/10, L5 5/5" means he cleared the line in 8 of his last 10 games and all of his last 5. L10 is the steadier number because it uses more games; L5 shows recent form, like a new role or a slump. When they disagree, find out why before trusting either one.
Is points + assists (P+A) a good prop to research?
P+A adds a player's points and assists into one line, so a quiet scoring night can be offset by more assists. That often makes it steadier than points or assists alone, especially for ball-handlers, which makes it a useful prop to research. It is not automatically better: books set the combined line knowing this, and minutes still drive both stats. Check the last 10 and last 5 on the exact P+A line and the price.
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