Breakeven win rate
What does "breakeven win rate" mean in sports betting?
Breakeven win rate is the share of bets you must win at a given price just to avoid losing money. It equals the price's implied probability.
For favorites (minus odds), divide the odds by the odds plus 100, ignoring the minus sign. For underdogs (plus odds), divide 100 by the odds plus 100.
It's the bar a bet has to clear. If you think a side wins more often than its breakeven, the price may have value. If not, pass, no matter how often that kind of bet cashes.
Example
At -110, breakeven is 110 / 210 = 52.38%. At +120 it's 100 / 220 = 45.45%. Win exactly 50 of 100 bets of $110 at -110 and you're down $500, or 4.55% of the $11,000 you staked.
Related terms
Vig (juice)
The vig, also called juice or the hold, is the commission a sportsbook builds into its prices so it profits no matter which side wins.
Implied probability
Implied probability is the win chance a price suggests. It turns odds into a percentage so you can compare them with your own estimate.
American odds
American odds show how much you risk to win $100 (minus numbers) or how much you win on a $100 bet (plus numbers).
Expected value (EV)
Expected value (EV) is the average amount a bet would win or lose per play if you could make it many times. Positive EV (+EV) means the price is better than the true chance.
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