Last 5 vs last 10 hit rates: which one to trust for player props
Last 10 is the steadier number and last 5 is the faster one. Use last 10 as the baseline and last 5 to spot a change. When they disagree, the reason matters more than either number.
What each window tells you
- Last 10: enough games that one outlier does not swing it much. A good default for a player whose role has not changed.
- Last 5: reacts quickly. It picks up a new starting role, a minutes jump after a teammate's injury, or a slump.
- Season: the long baseline. Early in a season it is also the cleanest current-role sample, because last 10 can reach back into last year.
When they disagree
- Last 5 higher than last 10: check for a role change. A teammate out, a move into the starting lineup or more minutes can make the recent games the better guide, until that teammate returns.
- Last 5 lower than last 10: check for an injury, a minutes cap or a tougher stretch of opponents. A short slump against strong defenses is different from a role cut.
- Both high: the strongest research signal, but look at the margins in each game and tonight's injury report.
A quick example
A guard with 25+ points in 9 of his last 10 but 3 of his last 5 has likely changed something recently. If his team's second scorer just returned from injury, the last 5 is probably the more useful number. If he faced three top defenses in a row, the last 10 may still describe him better.
Where to compare them
Every player page on DARIMARKET shows last 5, last 10 and season hit rates side by side for each stat: darimarket.us hit rates. The short answer is here: L10 vs L5. How to read the rate itself: How to read a player prop hit rate.
21+. Research, not picks: hit rates describe past games only. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
FAQ
Is last 5 or last 10 more accurate? Neither predicts the next game. Last 10 is steadier; last 5 shows recent changes faster. Use them together with the season rate.
Why does last 10 include last season early in the year? Until a player has played 10 games this season, a last 10 has to reach back into last season. DARIMARKET labels this, and the current-season sample is usually the better read early on.
What should I check when last 5 and last 10 disagree? Minutes, starting role, injuries to teammates and the opponents in those games. The reason for the gap tells you which number fits tonight.