Rangers without Igor Shesterkin: what the numbers say after 12 games

Second period in Washington, Oct. 9. Igor Shesterkin leaves his crease to challenge a shooter, loses his footing on the way back and catches his right skate on the post. His teammates help him off the ice. The next day, the Associated Press reported, the Rangers announced he was done for the season.

That one fall changed New York's year. Shesterkin won the Vezina Trophy in 2022, and in his five appearances this fall he stopped 101 of 109 shots, a .927 save percentage, based on ESPN's box scores.

The Rangers have now played 12 games without him. Tonight they visit Edmonton, the team that beat them 4-1 in New York on Nov. 1. So we wanted to answer one question: how much has losing Shesterkin actually cost the Rangers? Five numbers tell the story.

Number one: 3.42 goals against a game

In the first six games, with Shesterkin healthy until that second period in Washington, the Rangers allowed 11 goals. That is 1.83 a game.

In the 12 games since, they have allowed 41, or 3.42 a game. Four of those went into an empty net, so the goalies themselves have been beaten 37 times.

The record followed the goals. New York was 4-2-0 before the injury and had won four straight before the loss in Washington. Since then the Rangers are 6-5-1, which leaves them 10-7-1 on the season, per ESPN.

Number two: a .888 save percentage

Save percentage is the cleanest way to see the gap. Shesterkin was at .927. Since he went down, Rangers goalies have stopped 292 of 329 shots, a .888 mark.

That sounds small. It is not. Over a normal night's workload, that difference works out to roughly one extra goal against. Four of the Rangers' 18 games this season have been decided by one goal.

Number three: five goalies in 18 games

The Rangers have already used five goalies this season. The depth chart was thin before Shesterkin ever got hurt.

Joonas Korpisalo, brought in over the summer to back him up, landed on injured reserve in the first week of the season with a lower-body injury, The Hockey News reported. That pushed Dylan Garand into the backup job. NHL.com noted the Rangers had put Garand on waivers two weeks before opening night, and he cleared. He was recalled from AHL Hartford when Korpisalo went down.

Then the scramble started:

• Spencer Martin finished a 7-1 loss in New Jersey on Oct. 15 after Garand allowed four goals on 13 shots.
• James Reimer, 38, signed a one-year deal on Oct. 25 and started the next night against Los Angeles. He gave up three goals on eight shots and was pulled after one period of a 6-3 loss, according to The Hockey News. The Rangers put him on waivers last week.
• Korpisalo finally made his season debut Saturday in Seattle. He made 25 saves on 28 shots. The Rangers led 4-0 after two periods, then held on for a 4-3 win after the Kraken scored three times in the third.

Number four: 4-0-1 when Garand is sharp

Garand has carried the load. He has started 10 of the 12 games since the injury, and across 13 appearances this season he has stopped 280 of 309 shots, a .906 save percentage.

His nights have been close to all or nothing. In the five starts since the injury where he posted a .920 save percentage or better, the Rangers went 4-0-1 and allowed seven goals total. In his other five starts, they went 1-4.

The good version has shown up lately. He stopped 32 of 33 shots against St. Louis on Nov. 3 and 23 of 25 against Philadelphia on Nov. 5. Add Korpisalo's win in Seattle and the Rangers bring a three-game winning streak into Edmonton.

Number five: 6.58 goals per game, both teams combined

Here is the twist. The Rangers are scoring more, not less. They scored 17 goals in their first six games, 2.83 a game. They have scored 38 in the 12 since, 3.17 a game.

Put both sides together and Rangers games since the injury have averaged 6.58 total goals, up from 4.67 before it. Shots against are climbing too, from 23.8 a game to 27.4.

So the Rangers have turned from a low-event team into a high-event one. Some of that is the goalie. Some of it is how they play in front of him. NHL.com pointed out that Shesterkin is one of the league's best puck handlers in net, and that changes how opponents forecheck New York and where they dump the puck in.

What it means on the board

• Totals: Rangers games have gone from 4.67 combined goals a night to 6.58 since Shesterkin went down. That shift is why totals and team totals involving New York deserve a fresh look instead of an early-season number.
• Saves: 27.4 shots against a game means real volume for whoever starts. The starter matters more than usual right now, so confirm the goalie before you tap in on a saves market.
• Tonight in Edmonton: the Oilers are 12-3-3 per ESPN and beat the Rangers 4-1 on Nov. 1, when Garand made 20 saves on 23 shots. Tonight's board has an alternate puck line on the Rangers and a points look for Adam Fox, the kind of markets where the goalie question shows up first.
• Next up: the Rangers play in Calgary on Wednesday, the third stop of a western road trip that started in Seattle.

This is research, not a promise. A .920 night from Garand or Korpisalo changes the whole picture, and the numbers above show how often that has happened.

Want the full slate? See the NHL board and free picks, revisit the Oilers-Rangers recap from Nov. 1, or read up on how totals work.

21+. Research and commentary, not betting advice.