Air Force vs. N Illinois Recap: Falcons Run for 439, Three Plays Cash

Air Force beat Northern Illinois 28-7 on the road, and the Falcons did it almost entirely on the ground. Air Force ran 67 times for 439 yards, attempted one pass all night, converted 10 of 13 third downs and held the ball for 39:09. Northern Illinois tied it 7-7 in the second quarter, but Air Force scored the next three touchdowns and never let the Huskies back in. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Air Force ML (-298 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Air Force was a 7-point road favorite, and Dimers projected a 27-20 Falcons win with a 74% win chance. - What happened: Air Force won by 21. After the 7-7 tie, the Falcons put together a 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive late in the first half, then scored twice in the third quarter on runs of 33 and 41 yards. Air Force did not turn it over and picked off one pass. - Worth watching: A run-first team that wins the clock this badly limits how many chances the other side gets. That profile helps a favorite hold a lead.

ALT: Air Force over 13.5 team total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Air Force had scored 14+ in all 4 games this season and in 9 of its last 10. The market implied about 28 points for the Falcons, so 13.5 left a lot of room. - What happened: Air Force scored exactly the 28 the market implied, finishing 14.5 points over the alt line. The Falcons cleared 13.5 on Evan Medders' 4-yard run with 41 seconds left in the first half. - Worth watching: Low alt team totals on an offense that controls the ball like this one are a steady parlay piece. Check the main total first, since a big gap between the main number and the alt is what makes it work.

Evan Medders 12+ rush attempts (alt, worth it at -200 or better): CASHED - Our read: Our pregame news note had Medders atop the depth chart after Liam Szarka was ruled out for the season. Air Force's option offense had been running its QB 23 times a game, so 12 carries looked like a low bar. - What happened: Medders carried 16 times for 114 yards and two touchdowns, with a long of 41. That is 4.5 carries over the line. His 41-yard touchdown run in the third quarter made it 28-7. - Worth watching: Air Force spread its carries around: Owen Allen carried 13 times for 100 yards and two scores, and Kemper Hodges carried 11 times. Medders' attempts props are worth a look again, but the split is the risk to track.

How the game played out

Northern Illinois' only score was a 9-yard Telly Johnson Jr. run in the second quarter. Taron Dickens completed 13 of 20 passes for 140 yards with an interception, and the Huskies ran just 23 times. The Falcons ate up the third and fourth quarters with long drives, including a 17-play march that took 10:31 off the clock.

Trends to watch

• Air Force averaged 6.6 yards a carry, with five players getting 7 or more carries. That split makes any single back's yardage prop harder to trust.
• DeAree Rogers caught 7 passes for 81 yards and was Northern Illinois' main target. When the Huskies get limited possessions, his volume is the one to watch.
• Air Force's 39:09 of possession left Northern Illinois with very few drives. That shape of game points toward unders on the opposing offense.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more in our total and moneyline guides, or find more games on the CFB hub.