Alabama vs. Mississippi St Recap: 79 Points, Both QBs Clear Alts
Alabama beat Mississippi State 56-23 on the road, scoring exactly 14 points in every quarter. Dijon Lee Jr. returned an interception 30 yards for a touchdown to make it 14-0 early, and State pulled within 21-14 and 28-17 at the half before Alabama scored four of the five second-half touchdowns. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
Over 55.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: Alabama was averaging 48 points a game and Mississippi State 43. Alabama was without linebackers Justin Hill, Desmond Umeozulu and Cayden Jones plus DB Jorden Edmonds, and both starting quarterbacks were available. - What happened: The teams combined for 79 points, clearing the line by 23.5. It went over with 7:07 left in the third quarter, when Trae'shawn Brown's 8-yard run made it 42-17. A defensive touchdown and four State turnovers kept the scoreboard moving. - Worth watching: We laddered down from the main total of 62.5 for cushion. Both offenses came in averaging 43 or more, and this one had scores from the offense, the defense and short fields.
ALT: Keelon Russell 225+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Russell had gone 256, 188, 320 and 365 and was trending up, with 7 TDs over the last two weeks. The total said shootout, and with State unbeaten, Alabama was not expected to sit on a lead. - What happened: Russell completed 16 of 22 passes for 285 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT, clearing 225 by 60.5 yards. He averaged 13.0 yards per attempt, hit Lotzeir Brooks for 96 yards on 4 catches, threw two touchdowns to Rico Scott and ran one in from 17 yards. - Worth watching: He got there on only 22 attempts, and Austin Mack finished the game. In a blowout the volume dries up, so the alt line is the safer way to play him than a bigger number.
ALT: Kamario Taylor 200+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Taylor had thrown for 227, 251, 354 and 360, over 200 in all four games. Alabama ruled out three linebackers (Hill, Umeozulu, Jones) and two DBs (Edmonds and Nick Sherman). - What happened: Taylor completed 19 of 34 passes for 258 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT, clearing 200 by 58.5 yards. Anthony Evans III caught 12 passes for 166 yards and two scores, including a 45-yarder in the third quarter. Trailing most of the day kept State throwing. - Worth watching: This was State's only way to move the ball. The Bulldogs ran for 18 yards on 30 attempts, so Taylor's passing volume looks steady when State is behind.
How the game played out
Alabama outgained State 483 to 302 and State turned it over 4 times to Alabama's 2. The Tide converted 6-9 on third down and held the ball for 34:41. Brown ran for 66 yards and 2 TD on 14 carries, and EJ Crowell broke a 37-yard run.
Trends to watch
- Anthony Evans III's target share: 12 catches for 166 yards. When State is chasing points, he is the first read.
- Alabama's pass defense: It gave up 284 passing yards to State even while winning by 33. Opposing quarterback yardage props stay on the radar.
- Russell's efficiency vs. volume: 285 yards on 22 attempts. His yards are there, but blowouts can cap the attempts.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the alt line and the total, or see more at the college football hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.