Auburn vs. Tennessee Recap: Bishop Runs Vols Past Tigers

Tennessee beat Auburn 24-14 in a game that stayed scoreless through the first quarter. All eight first-quarter drives ended in punts. Tennessee took a 3-0 lead on a Cooper Ranvier field goal, and Byrum Brown answered with a 7-yard touchdown run to put Auburn up 7-3 at the half. The third quarter flipped it. DeSean Bishop scored from 25 and 44 yards out to make it 17-7. Auburn cut it to 17-14 on a Brown touchdown pass to Arlis Boardingham, but Bishop closed it with a 5-yard run with 3:30 left. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Faizon Brandon under 33.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Brandon's rushing totals against FBS opponents were 22, 47 and 2 yards. In college, sack yardage comes off a quarterback's rushing number, and Bishop and Daune Morris handle the designed runs.
• What happened: Brandon finished with 4 carries for -9 yards, 42.5 yards under the line. Two of those carries were first-quarter sacks by Da'Shawn Womack for losses of 3 and 1. A third was a 12-yard loss on a fumble he recovered himself. His only gain was a 7-yard run. He also completed 3 passes on 8 attempts for 0 yards with an interception before George MacIntyre took the snaps late in the second quarter. Bishop carried 34 times for 220 yards and three touchdowns, and Morris added 8 carries for 32.
• Worth watching: This one carried 62 confidence, so it was a long shot that landed. When the backs get the carries and sacks count against the quarterback, a low rushing line on a quarterback can still sit too high.

Tennessee ML (-258 DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Tennessee was a 6.5-point home favorite. Brown had 5 interceptions through four games, and he was facing a Vols front led by Xavier Gilliam, who had 4 sacks.
• What happened: Brown threw 2 more interceptions and lost a fumble, for 3 Auburn turnovers. The biggest one came in the third quarter. With Gilliam and Daevin Hobbs getting to him, Brown threw a pick to Dejuan Lane, who returned it 32 yards. Bishop scored from 44 yards out on the next snap to make it 17-7. Auburn's last drive also ended in an interception. Lane had 9 tackles, 2 sacks and the pick.
• Worth watching: A heavy moneyline is only worth it if the favorite has a clear edge. This one held up because the turnover angle in our read played out. At -258 you need Tennessee to win more than 72 percent of the time to break even, so we would want the same kind of matchup edge before laying that price again.

How the game played out

Brown carried Auburn's offense. He ran 19 times for 107 yards, including a 57-yard run in the fourth quarter that set up the Boardingham score, and he completed 22 passes on 33 attempts for 159 yards. Auburn outgained Tennessee 345 to 323. But 11 penalties for 94 yards and three turnovers kept them from cashing in on that yardage. Tennessee only threw for 86 yards and won on the ground with 237 rushing yards on 49 attempts.

Trends to watch

• Tennessee leaned on Bishop. He took 34 carries while the team had 49 rushing attempts, which left little room for quarterback runs.
• Brown ran for 107 yards but also accounted for all 3 Auburn turnovers. Both sides of his game are worth tracking against fronts that get pressure.
• Neither offense converted well on third down. Auburn converted 5 times on 14 tries and Tennessee converted 3 times on 14 tries.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the moneyline, see why price matters with implied probability, or find more games at the college football hub.