Baylor vs. Arizona St Recap: Harris and Freeman Overs Cash in Rout

Baylor beat Arizona State 55-19, and it got away from the Sun Devils early. Arizona State kicked a field goal on its first scoring drive, then Baylor answered with a 63-yard Ryelan Morris touchdown run and scored three straight touchdowns to lead 21-3 early in the second quarter. DJ Lagway threw four touchdown passes, Baylor out-gained Arizona State 564 to 409, and Baylor did not turn it over while Arizona State gave it away three times. Eight DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Baylor +10.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: The main line had Arizona State by 3.5 and models had it near 3. Baylor was allowing 16.3 points a game to FBS teams, and Arizona State was allowing 32.5. - What happened: Baylor did not need the points. They won by 36, clearing the number by 46.5. Two Baylor touchdowns early in the third quarter pushed the lead to 38-13, and Caden Knighten's 75-yard touchdown run later in the quarter settled it. - Worth watching: Taking points with the team allowing far fewer points a game is a sound start. We would want to see Baylor's defense hold that level before paying alt prices on them again.

Reed Harris over 70.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Harris had 374 yards on 19 catches through 3 games, about 125 a game, and SportsGrid projected 96 against a 70.5 line. - What happened: Harris caught 7 passes for 125 yards, 54.5 over the line. He passed 70.5 on a 14-yard catch in the third quarter. - Worth watching: He hit almost exactly his season pace. As long as books price him well under that pace, his yardage line stays on our list.

ALT: Reed Harris 45+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: BetRivers had the main at 69.5, with consensus at 70.5. Harris is Arizona State's top target with games of 137, 189 and 48 yards. - What happened: He had 63 yards by halftime, including a 41-yard catch on the touchdown drive before the break. He finished at 125, 80.5 over. - Worth watching: An alt this far under the main gives cushion against a quiet game like his 48. The price is the cost of that cushion.

ALT: Reed Harris 60+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Same base: 374 yards and 5 touchdowns in 3 games, with the main as high as 79.5 at Covers. - What happened: The 41-yard catch got him past 60 before halftime. He added a 37-yarder in the third quarter and cleared by 65.5. - Worth watching: Two catches of 37-plus yards drove this one. If he keeps getting deep targets, the middle alt rungs look reasonable.

ALT: Cutter Boley 175+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: The main was 210.5. Boley had 736 yards and 9 touchdowns through 3 games, about 245 a game, and we expected Arizona State to throw. - What happened: Boley completed 25 passes on 43 attempts and threw for 304 yards, with a touchdown and an interception, 129.5 over. Trailing from midway through the first quarter, Arizona State leaned on his arm while running it 30 times. - Worth watching: Volume carried this. A trailing script locks in attempts, so his passing alts make the most sense when we expect a close game or a deficit.

Kyson Brown under 93.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Brown had 227 yards on 43 carries in 3 games, about 76 a game. Getting to 93.5 needed his best game of the year, and SportsGrid projected 61. - What happened: Brown ran 7 times for 34 yards with a long of 13, finishing 59.5 under. Arizona State ran for 99 yards as a team. - Worth watching: Seven carries is a light load. When a game script turns pass-heavy, high rushing lines are where we look for unders.

ALT: Gavin Freeman 60+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: This sat about 20 yards under the 79.5 main. Freeman averaged 91 receiving yards a game as Lagway's go-to target. - What happened: Freeman caught 7 passes for 115 yards, 55.5 over. A 27-yard catch late in the second quarter set up Baylor's field goal before the half. - Worth watching: He was steady across the game with five catches of 12-plus yards. The alt below the main fits his profile.

Gavin Freeman over 79.5 receiving yards (-110, best posted price via Covers): CASHED - Our read: Freeman had 35 catches for 364 yards in 4 games, 91 a game, and Arizona State had allowed 32.5 points a game. At 61 confidence, this was our lowest-rated play here, a long shot that landed. - What happened: Freeman had 79 yards at halftime, a half-yard short. His 31-yard catch on Baylor's opening drive of the third quarter put him over, and he finished 35.5 over at 115. - Worth watching: His average sits above this line, so we would keep checking the main number against it.

How the game played out

Arizona State moved the ball at times but settled for four Carson Smith field goals and turned it over on downs twice. Baylor broke it open in the third quarter: Lagway touchdown passes on Baylor's first two drives of the half, the second coming right after a Ryan Davis interception, then Knighten's 75-yard run on a single-play drive. Arizona State converted 4 of 15 third downs.

Trends to watch

• Baylor's ground game had two long touchdown runs, 63 and 75 yards, and finished with 244 rushing yards on 36 attempts.
• Harris and Freeman each caught 7 passes. Both look like clear top targets in their offenses.
• Arizona State turned it over three times, including a lost fumble at the Baylor 29 in the first quarter.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alt numbers? Read our guide to alt lines, see how a player prop works, or find more games on our college football hub.