DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Sat, Nov 7

Boise St vs. Colorado St Recap: Riley and Jones Clear Receiving Alts

Final · Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams
Boise St 64, Colorado St 38
Board plays on this game
2 of 3 hit. We post the misses too.

Boise State beat Colorado State 64-38 on the road, and the game was decided early. Boise scored on a 2-play, 76-yard opening drive when Max Cutforth hit Dylan Riley for a 73-yard touchdown, then added a 42-yard Riley run and a 15-yard Matt Wagner catch to lead 22-7 after one quarter. Boise led 29-10 at the half and scored 5 more touchdowns after the break. Cutforth completed 16 of 19 passes for 317 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions, and Boise ran for 352 yards on 44 carries. Boise finished with 669 total yards and no turnovers. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Dylan Riley 5+ receiving yards (-270 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Riley had cleared 5+ receiving yards in 10 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20. The best price of -270 implied about 73%, and his recent run put him near 82%. - What happened: The first catch settled it. Riley's 73-yard touchdown on the opening drive was most of his 88 receiving yards on 2 catches, 83.5 yards past the line. He also ran 19 times for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a long of 42. - Worth watching: A low receiving bar on a back who touches the ball this much is a steady angle, but the price is the cost. At -270 it has to land about 73% of the time just to break even.

ALT: Rasean Jones 60+ receiving yards (-192 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Jones came in as Boise's leading receiver with 38 catches for 554 yards. He had 60+ in 6 of 7 games, averaging 79.1 and 94.3 over his last 3, and Colorado State ranked 115th against receiving yards. The FanDuel main line was 72.5. - What happened: Jones caught 6 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown, 56.5 yards past the line. His 35-yard touchdown in the second quarter made it 29-10, and he led Boise in catches and receiving yards. - Worth watching: Jones cleared the main line too. When a top receiver gets this kind of matchup, the alt at 60+ gives room even if his volume dips.

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How the game played out

Colorado State moved the ball, with 513 total yards. Hauss Hejny threw for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for 69 more, and Tommy Maher caught 6 passes for 99 yards and a score. The Rams converted 4 of 13 third downs, while Boise converted 5 of 7. Boise punted once all night. Harry Stewart III added touchdown runs of 43 and 6 yards in the fourth quarter.

Trends to watch

  • Cutforth's efficiency: 317 yards on 19 attempts, 16.7 yards per pass, with 4 different receivers catching touchdowns.
  • Riley's dual role: 21 touches for 280 total yards and 3 touchdowns.
  • Colorado State's pass defense: Jones, Riley and Terrious Favors each had a catch of 29 yards or more.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn how an alt line works and what makes a player prop, or check the CFB hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

Player hit rates from this game

Research tools

Free. Hit rates show past results, not a prediction. 21+.

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