Duke vs. Georgia Tech Recap: Running Back Workloads Cash Three Props

Georgia Tech beat Duke 28-25 in a game that flipped twice in the final three minutes. Nate Sheppard's second 5-yard touchdown run put Duke ahead 25-21 with 2:40 left, and Trelain Maddox answered with a 1-yard score with 54 seconds to go for his third touchdown of the day. Duke controlled the ball for 35:26 and converted 10 of 17 third downs, but Maddox's 60-yard run in the third quarter and a turnover-free Georgia Tech offense kept the Yellow Jackets in front for most of the afternoon. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all of them on running back workloads.

What cashed

Nate Sheppard 18+ rush attempts (alt): CASHED

• Our read: Sheppard had 20+ carries in every game except a 62-7 blowout, and SportsLine projected 22.4 carries. We expected the bulk of Duke's ground work to be his.
• What happened: He carried 27 times, 9.5 clear of the 17.5 line. Duke ran 35 times as a team, so Sheppard handled most of the backfield work.
• Worth watching: This is the cleanest workload in the game. When a back is getting this share of his team's carries, attempts lines in the high teens are worth checking every week.

Nate Sheppard 80+ rushing yards (alt): CASHED

• Our read: He had 100+ rushing yards in all four games, even on 9 carries in the 62-7 blowout, and Georgia Tech was allowing 189 rushing yards a game, most in the ACC, with three defensive ends and DT Shymeik Jones ruled out.
• What happened: Sheppard finished with 99 rushing yards and two touchdowns, 19.5 over the line, with a long of 20. He also caught seven passes for 91 yards, so he touched the ball 34 times for 190 yards from scrimmage.
• Worth watching: He averaged 3.7 yards a carry, so the yardage came from volume, not big runs. A back with this kind of workload is the profile we want for alt yardage lines.

Justice Haynes 12+ rush attempts (alt): CASHED

• Our read: Haynes had 20+ touches in every game this year, and with backup Malachi Hosley out, Georgia Tech figured to lean on him.
• What happened: He carried 14 times for 69 yards, 2.5 over the line. Georgia Tech ran only 27 times as a team and had the ball for just 24:34, so the cushion was thin but it held.
• Worth watching: Maddox took 10 carries and scored all three Georgia Tech rushing touchdowns. Haynes's attempts are worth watching closely if that split keeps up.

How the game played out

Georgia Tech scored first on a 5-yard Alberto Mendoza pass to Jordan Allen, and Maddox's 60-yard run made it 21-10 in the third. Duke cut it to 21-18 when Walker Eget found Jared Richardson for an 8-yard score and added a two-point conversion, then took the lead on Sheppard's late run. Mendoza was efficient all day, completing 23 of 30 passes for 218 yards, and Allen caught 10 balls for 99 yards. Neither team turned it over. Georgia Tech was flagged 11 times for 110 yards and still won.

Trends to watch

• Sheppard's 34 touches show how much Duke runs through him. His receiving work adds a floor to his scrimmage yardage props too.
• Maddox ran 10 times for 81 yards and three scores. He is the Georgia Tech back to watch near the goal line, not Haynes.
• Allen saw heavy volume with 10 catches. Mendoza's efficient passing game keeps his receptions line worth a look.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these bet types? Read up on alt lines and player props, or head back to the college football hub.