Florida St vs. Louisville Recap: Brown Runs for 235 in Comeback
Louisville beat Florida State 44-20 on Friday night after falling behind 14-0 in the 1st quarter. Ashton Daniels ran for one touchdown and threw a 25-yard score to Micahi Danzy for the early lead, and then Louisville scored the next 35 points. Isaac Brown started it with a 97-yard touchdown run, and he finished with 235 rushing yards on 17 carries. Louisville ran for 397 yards and did not turn it over. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
Louisville ML (-192 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Florida State had 10 players out, including 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, against a Louisville offense scoring 38.6 a game. Lincoln Kienholz was probable after throwing for 254 the week before. - What happened: Louisville won by 24. After the 14-0 start, the Cardinals tied it by halftime on Brown's 97-yard run and a 3-yard Marquise Davis run, then took over with two Kienholz touchdown runs in the 3rd. - Worth watching: At 64 confidence, this was a long shot that landed. The slow start is a reminder that a moneyline read can look shaky early and still be right.
ALT: Over 52.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Every Louisville game had reached 57 or more, Florida State was missing eight defenders, and Kienholz was playing. - What happened: 64 total points, 11.5 over the alt line. Braxton Jennings' 44-yard run early in the 4th made it 35-14, and Danzy's 2-yard touchdown catch with 8:30 left pushed it past the number. - Worth watching: Louisville's games keep landing high. Taking the alt 8 points under the main number gave room for a scoreless 1st quarter from the Cardinals.
How the game played out
Florida State moved the ball early but managed only one more touchdown after the 1st quarter, a 2-yard Daniels pass to Danzy in the 4th, and the two-point try failed. Daniels finished with 209 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, and ran for 45 yards and a score. Louisville's ground game did the damage: Brown had 235 yards, Davis added 56, Jennings 49 and Kienholz 40 with two scores. Kienholz completed 11 of 15 passes for 140 yards, and Lawayne McCoy caught 3 passes for 78 yards. Carson Hilbert closed the scoring with a 39-yard field goal with 2:59 left.
Trends to watch
- Brown's big-play ability: touchdown runs of 97 and 68 yards. His rushing yardage props carry real upside against thin defenses.
- Louisville's run game: 397 yards on 43 carries. Rushing props across this backfield are worth a look.
- Louisville totals: this was another game past 57 points. The Cardinals' scoring keeps over angles in play.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. Read up on the moneyline and total, or see the college football board.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.