Georgia vs. Alabama Recap: Georgia +6.5 and the Under Cash
Georgia won 20-17 at Alabama in a game that was tied going into the fourth quarter. Georgia jumped out 10-0, Alabama answered with two second-quarter touchdowns to lead 14-10 at the half, and a Conor Talty field goal tied it 17-17 in the third. Peyton Woodring's 23-yard field goal with 5:25 left was the last score. Georgia outgained Alabama 455 to 346 and held the ball for 33:28. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
ALT: Georgia +6.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Georgia had covered +6.5 in 10 of its last 10 and 7 of 7 on the road, and the main line was only Alabama -2.5. A stormy forecast also pointed to fewer points, which helps the side getting them. - What happened: Georgia won outright by 3, so the ticket cleared by 9.5 points. The deciding drive went 84 yards in 10 plays and used 5:19 before Woodring's kick, and Alabama's next possession ended in a punt. - Worth watching: Getting more than a touchdown in a game priced near a pick'em covers almost any one-score finish. That alt spread is worth checking when the main number is short and the price stays in range.
ALT: Under 57.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: The forecast called for strong gusts and real rain chances, and the total had already dropped three points during the week. Going up to 57.5 gave us six more points of room than the main number. - What happened: The teams combined for 37 points, 20.5 under the line. The only fourth-quarter points were Woodring's 23-yard field goal, and Alabama punted five times. - Worth watching: Both teams leaned on the run (Georgia 39 carries, Alabama 29), which keeps the clock moving. When the main total is already falling, a padded alt under is worth a look at the right price.
Gunner Stockton under 249.5 passing yards (alt, targeted -200 or better): CASHED - Our read: Stockton was averaging 210 passing yards a game (1,049 in five) and had stayed under 249.5 in 9 of his last 10. We also expected the wind to limit the passing game. - What happened: This was the closest call of the night. Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards with one touchdown and one interception, half a yard under. He sat at 232 before a 17-yard completion to Elyiss Williams on Georgia's final possession. He also ran for a 14-yard touchdown in the third quarter. - Worth watching: Georgia ran for 206 yards, so Stockton did not need volume. Efficient games like this one (11.3 yards per attempt) are the risk for a yardage under, even when the attempts stay low.
Keelon Russell 175+ passing yards (alt, targeted -250 or better): CASHED - Our read: Russell had 175+ in all five starts, with 1,414 yards (283 a game) on 71% completions. In a near pick'em, we expected Alabama to have to throw. - What happened: Russell completed 16 of 30 passes for 185 yards and a 22-yard touchdown to Marshall Pritchett, 10.5 over the line. The 12-play, 80-yard drive at the end of the first half included completions of 23 yards to Ryan Coleman-Williams and 28 to Lotzeir Brooks. - Worth watching: At 6.2 yards per attempt he got there on volume, well short of the 231.5 main line FanDuel posted. That gap is the case for a lower alt number on a quarterback who is sure to throw.
Keelon Russell 15+ completions (alt, targeted -250 or better): CASHED - Our read: Russell was completing 71.2% of his passes and had 15+ completions in all five games. - What happened: He finished with 16 completions, 1.5 over. Two came on Alabama's drive right after Georgia retook the lead in the fourth: 23 yards to Rico Scott and 18 to Derek Meadows. - Worth watching: Completion props live on attempts. Alabama's 30 attempts were enough, but at a 53% completion rate this one was tighter than his season form suggested.
Ryan Coleman-Williams 30+ receiving yards (alt, targeted -250 or better): CASHED - Our read: Alabama's leading receiver had 376 yards in five games (75 a game) and 30+ in every one of them. - What happened: He caught 3 passes for 39 yards, 9.5 over. The 23-yard catch in the final minute of the first half did most of the work, with a 10-yard gain in the first quarter and a 6-yard gain in the third. By the play-by-play, Russell threw his way eight times. - Worth watching: Eight looks in a 30-attempt game is a steady share. A low alt yardage number on the lead receiver held up on a night when Alabama's passing game was modest.
How the game played out
Georgia went up 10-0 on a 43-yard Woodring field goal and a 20-yard touchdown pass from Stockton to London Humphreys. Alabama answered with an 89-yard drive in three plays, then went 80 yards in the final 1:42 of the half and scored on an EJ Crowell 1-yard run as time ran out. Georgia opened the third with a 75-yard touchdown drive, Talty tied it, and Georgia's 84-yard field goal drive in the fourth decided it. Each side turned the ball over once.
Trends to watch
- Georgia's run game carried the night: 206 yards on 39 carries, led by Dwight Phillips Jr. (17 carries, 120 yards) and Bo Walker (10 carries, 69 yards). Phillips rushing props are worth a look if that split holds.
- Russell added 9 carries for 41 yards with a long of 22. His rushing line is worth checking alongside his passing props.
- Alabama's Trae'shawn Brown ran 9 times for 90 yards with a 58-yard long, a sign he can hit a yardage number on limited carries.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on how we use alternate numbers, see alt lines, totals and our college football hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.