DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Sat, Oct 10

Hawai'i vs. Arizona St Recap: Boley, Harris and the Totals Cash

Final · Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona St 30, Hawai'i 12
Board plays on this game
18 of 20 hit. We post the misses too.

Arizona State beat Hawai'i 30-12. ASU led 17-6 at halftime, then Cardae Mack broke a 67-yard touchdown run late in the third. Hawai'i answered with a 32-yard Micah Alejado touchdown pass to Audric Harris, and Reed Harris closed the scoring with his second touchdown catch at 1:55 of the fourth. ASU ran for 231 yards, while Hawai'i threw for 252. Eighteen DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all posted pregame.

What cashed

Arizona State ML (-1800 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: ASU was a 21-point home favorite against a pass defense ranked 92nd. - What happened: ASU led from 8:13 of the first quarter on and won by 18. - Worth watching: At this price it is a parlay leg, not a standalone bet.

ALT: Arizona State -13.5: CASHED - Our read: ASU was -21 with a 36-14 projection, so the alt bought 7.5 points of cushion. - What happened: Won by 18, 4.5 clear, but ASU led by 12 until Reed Harris scored with 1:55 left. - Worth watching: It needed a late score, so size alt spreads with that in mind.

ALT: Hawaii +27.5: CASHED - Our read: Hawai'i's four losses came by 10, 15, 17 and 4, and ASU had been outscored 44-10 in fourth quarters. - What happened: Lost by 18, 9.5 inside the number; ASU's biggest lead was 18. - Worth watching: Paired with ASU -13.5, any ASU win by 14 to 27 cashed both.

ALT: Under 60.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: Hawai'i averaged 17.6 points, so this needed both teams well past their norms. - What happened: 42 combined, 18.5 under; Hawai'i punted five times. - Worth watching: Alt unders well above the main total suit low-scoring sides.

ALT: Over 40.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: 8 of ASU's last 10 games cleared 41, and Hawai'i does its scoring late. - What happened: 42 points, 1.5 over, with 12 coming in the fourth quarter. - Worth watching: The two total alts sat 9 above and 11 below the main 51.5, and both cashed.

ALT: Arizona State over 27.5 team total points: CASHED - Our read: The market implied about 36 for ASU, which averaged 33.3 while Hawai'i allowed 24.8. - What happened: ASU scored 30, 2.5 over, with Reed Harris's late touchdown getting it there. - Worth watching: ASU converted 3 of 10 third downs and leaned on big runs.

ALT: Hawaii over 8.5 team total points: CASHED - Our read: Hawai'i had cleared 8.5 in 4 of 5 games and ASU allowed 31.8 a game. - What happened: Hawai'i scored 12, 3.5 over, on two field goals and a fourth-quarter touchdown. - Worth watching: The late touchdown fit the pattern in our read.

Cutter Boley 1+ passing TDs: CASHED - Our read: Boley had a TD pass in 9 of his last 10, and Hawai'i allowed 226 passing yards a game. - What happened: Two TD passes, both to Reed Harris, from 18 and 9 yards. - Worth watching: Harris caught every Boley touchdown, so the two pair naturally.

Cutter Boley 175+ passing yards: CASHED - Our read: He averages 260 against a main line of 228, so 175+ left room for an early exit. - What happened: 189 yards on 21 of 31 passing, 14.5 over. - Worth watching: With ASU running for 231 yards, he threw only 31 times; the alt left room for that.

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Cutter Boley 13+ completions: CASHED - Our read: He averaged 19.5 completions; the risk was rest in a blowout. At 64 confidence, a long shot that landed. - What happened: 21 completions, 8.5 clear, including the 9-yard touchdown with 1:55 left. - Worth watching: No other ASU quarterback threw a pass, so the rest risk never showed up.

Micah Alejado 33+ pass attempts: CASHED - Our read: He had 43 attempts a game, and a 21-point underdog should throw late. - What happened: 49 attempts, 16.5 over. - Worth watching: Attempts props on big pass-first underdogs are worth another look.

Micah Alejado 20+ completions: CASHED - Our read: He had 20+ in 4 of 5 games, and Hawai'i throws on about 67% of snaps. - What happened: 25 completions, 5.5 over. - Worth watching: Volume carried it, since he completed about half his throws.

Micah Alejado 225+ passing yards: CASHED - Our read: He averages 272 and threw for 338 last week. - What happened: 252 yards, 27.5 over. - Worth watching: At 5.1 yards per attempt, his yardage leaned on volume.

Micah Alejado 250+ passing yards: CASHED - Our read: He cleared 250 in 7 of his last 10. - What happened: 252 yards, 2.5 over. - Worth watching: Thin; the 225 alt gave far more cushion on the same read.

Reed Harris 3+ receptions: CASHED - Our read: ASU's top target had 26 catches in 4 games and no injury listing. - What happened: 8 catches for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns, 5.5 over. - Worth watching: He caught 8 of Boley's 21 completions, a share that keeps low alts in play.

Reed Harris 60+ receiving yards: CASHED - Our read: He averaged about 125 yards and is Boley's first read. - What happened: 91 yards, 31.5 over. - Worth watching: He cleared easily in a run-heavy game.

Kainoa Carvalho 3+ receptions: CASHED - Our read: Hawai'i's receiving-yards leader had 22 catches in 5 games. - What happened: 7 catches for 86 yards, 4.5 over. - Worth watching: He tied for the team lead in catches.

Kainoa Carvalho 20+ longest reception: CASHED - Our read: He had a 20+ catch in 4 of 5 games, and Hawai'i needed chunk plays. - What happened: His long was 25, 5 yards past the mark. - Worth watching: That makes 5 of 6 games with a 20+ catch.

How the game played out

Mack had 13 carries for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns, and his 67-yarder capped a 96-yard drive. Hawai'i held the ball for 31:17 but converted 7 of 19 third downs.

Trends to watch

  • Alejado threw 49 times. As a big underdog, his attempts and completions are the workload to track.
  • Reed Harris caught both Boley touchdowns and 8 of his 21 completions.
  • ASU ran for 231 yards on 30 carries; Mack's rushing yards are worth a look.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Read up on the alt line and the player prop, or visit our college football hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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