Iowa State vs. Arizona Recap: Arizona Rolls 39-3, Fifita Props Cash
Arizona beat Iowa State 39-3 at home. Noah Fifita hit Isaiah Mizell for a 71-yard touchdown on Arizona's second snap, and the Wildcats led 15-3 after the first quarter and 25-3 at halftime. After a scoreless third quarter, Arizona added two fourth-quarter touchdowns. Iowa State's only points came on a 40-yard Kyle Konrardy field goal late in the first. The Cyclones gained 221 total yards, ran for 52 on 31 carries and converted 3 of 14 third downs. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
ALT: Arizona -3.5 (-250 DraftKings / -290 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Arizona was -11.5 on the main line, had won by 4+ in 4 straight and 7 of its last 8 at home, and had a +15 average margin over its last 10. - What happened: Arizona won by 36, 32.5 better than the line. It led by 12 after one quarter and did not allow a point after Konrardy's field goal. - Worth watching: Arizona covered the main -11.5 easily as well, and its defense held Iowa State to 1.7 yards per carry. A home team winning by margins like this keeps the alt spread worth a look.
Noah Fifita 250+ passing yards (-158 FanDuel / -161 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Fifita had 250+ in 8 of his last 10, averaging 278 yards, and 307 over his last 3. - What happened: He completed 27 of 34 passes for 308 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, 58.5 over the 249.5 line. He had 222 at halftime, passed the line late in the third quarter and capped it with a 40-yard touchdown to Henry Gabalis with 6:41 left. - Worth watching: His 308 lined up almost exactly with his last-3 average of 307, at 9.1 yards per attempt. Mizell, with 8 catches for 134 yards, gives him a reliable top target.
ALT: Noah Fifita 15+ rushing yards (+102 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Fifita had cleared 15+ rushing yards in 7 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 19. At +102 (50% implied), the price sat below the roughly 64% rate from his recent games. - What happened: This long shot landed. He finished with 3 carries for 18 yards, 3.5 over the 14.5 line. A 17-yard run in the second quarter did most of the work, and a 6-yard carry offset a 5-yard sack, which counts against rushing in college stats. - Worth watching: The angle here is price: plus money on a number he has cleared in most recent games. One scramble covered it, so expect swings either way.
How the game played out
Mizell's 71-yard score set the tone, and he finished with 8 catches for 134 yards. Dash Fifita had 2 sacks for the Arizona defense. Iowa State used two quarterbacks, with Jaylen Raynor completing 8 of 10 passes for 106 yards and Connor Moberly completing 7 of 17 passes for 63 yards. The Cyclones' second-quarter drives ended on downs and a lost fumble.
Trends to watch
- Iowa State ran for 52 yards on 31 carries and went 3 of 14 on third down, and it punted 6 times. Arizona kept getting the ball back.
- Arizona held the ball for 34:26 and did not turn it over. That control supports its passing volume and its alt spreads.
- Fifita ran 3 times. His rushing line rides on one or two scrambles, so price is the main reason to play it.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about point spreads and implied probability, or see today's college football board.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.