Iowa vs. Michigan Recap: A Last-Play Touchdown Wins It for Iowa

Iowa won 20-19 at Michigan on the last play of the game. Hank Brown hit Reece Vander Zee for a 16-yard touchdown as time ran out, capping a 91-yard drive that took 1:46. Michigan outgained Iowa 429 to 285, but it settled for two field goals, turned it over on downs once and threw an interception. Nine DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game: five posted before kickoff and four live calls after it.

What cashed

ALT: Under 44.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Darius called this one. The 38.5 total was the lowest of any ranked game for a reason: two top-12 SP+ defenses and a Michigan QB with more turnover-worthy plays than TD passes. The alt gave us six extra points.
• What happened: The teams scored 39, 5.5 under 44.5. It was 10-7 at halftime and 13-7 going into the fourth.
• Worth watching: The extra points mattered, because the fourth quarter alone produced 19. With two defenses like these, an alt under with real cushion is worth a look.

Over 38.5 (-108): CASHED

• Our read: This was our best model edge of the afternoon: simulations had the over at 57.1% against an implied 52%. Two scoring drives per side gets there.
• What happened: It cashed by half a point, and only on the final snap. Before Vander Zee's last touchdown the score was 19-14, which was 33 points.
• Worth watching: The edge was real, but this one needed the last play. We'd look at it at 38.5 and not a point higher. Paired with the Under 44.5, 39 landed right in the middle and both cashed.

ALT: Iowa +12.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: In a game with a 38.5 total, 13 points is a big margin. Michigan was missing two running backs, a receiver and two offensive linemen, and Iowa had allowed 4.3 points a game.
• What happened: Iowa won outright, so it covered by 13.5.
• Worth watching: A low total plus a big alt spread is the cleanest way we play an underdog.

ALT: Iowa +9.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Michigan ruled out nine players, including running backs Micah Ka'apana and Jonathan Brown, WR Braydon Alford and four offensive linemen. With a 40.5 total and Michigan -5.5, the game looked built to stay within a score.
• What happened: Iowa won by 1, covering by 10.5. Michigan never led by more than 7.
• Worth watching: Same read as the +12.5, with a better price for less cushion.

ALT: JJ Buchanan 3+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Buchanan was averaging 5 catches and 88.7 yards a game, and Michigan was missing WR Braydon Alford and two backs.
• What happened: 5 catches for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns, an 18-yarder in the first quarter and a 49-yarder early in the fourth. He cleared 2.5 by 2.5.
• Worth watching: He was Michigan's biggest play-maker all day. His yardage line is worth a look next time too.

Iowa ML (+180): CASHED

• Our read: A small play, not a big one. If Iowa's defense held Michigan under 20, Brown would only need a couple of scoring drives.
• What happened: Michigan scored 19, and Brown led both of Iowa's offensive touchdown drives. He threw for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21-of-35 passing, both scores to Vander Zee.
• Worth watching: The script played out almost exactly as written. At +180 it stays a small play.

Iowa +5.5 (-115): CASHED

• Our read: Iowa's defense had allowed 13 points all season, and Michigan's offense was short-handed.
• What happened: Iowa won outright, covering by 6.5. It trailed 13-7 after three quarters, outside the number, before the fourth quarter swung it.
• Worth watching: Iowa stayed within a score all day, which is what we expected from a defense this good.

ALT: Michigan team total Under 27.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Iowa's defense led the country in points (4.3) and yards (176.7) allowed per game, and Michigan was down two backs, a receiver and linemen.
• What happened: Michigan scored 19, 8.5 under. It had 429 yards, but one drive ended on downs, one in an interception and two in field goals, and the two-point try after Buchanan's second touchdown failed.
• Worth watching: The yards were there, but the points weren't. Team total unders fit a defense like this.

1H ALT: Under 24.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Iowa's defense against a Michigan offense missing its top two backs meant a slow first half.
• What happened: It was 10-7 at the half, 17 points and 7.5 under. One of the two touchdowns was Braeden Jackson's 99-yard kickoff return.
• Worth watching: Even with a return touchdown, the half stayed well under. First-half unders fit games built around defense.

Trends to watch

• Iowa held Michigan to 19 despite 429 yards. Against this defense, points unders look sturdier than yardage unders.
• Holding both sides of a total paid here only because the final landed in the gap. Treat that as a bonus, not a plan.
• Buchanan had 130 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 catches. His receiving yards line is where we'd look first against Iowa-level defenses.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the total, the alt line and the moneyline.