LSU vs. Auburn Recap: Leavitt, LSU Roll 38-17; Both Team Totals Hit
LSU beat Auburn 38-17, and the game was over by halftime. LSU scored four touchdowns in the first half to lead 31-10 at the break, outgained Auburn 552 yards to 271 and did not turn it over. Sam Leavitt threw for 387 yards and 3 touchdowns and ran for another. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
ALT: LSU over 22.5 points (-370 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: LSU had scored 23 or more in all 7 games this year, 7 straight, and averaged 33.2 points over its last 10. The main team total was 29.3. - What happened: LSU cleared the alt before halftime. A 70-yard Leavitt touchdown pass to Jackson Harris with 4:29 left in the second quarter made it 24-10, and LSU finished with 38, 15.5 over the line. - Worth watching: Leavitt completed 32 of 45 passes and Harris had 178 yards and 2 scores on 9 catches. When this offense is clicking through the air, the alt team total is the conservative way to back it.
ALT: Auburn over 15.5 points (-310 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Auburn had scored 16 or more in 8 of its last 10 and 7 of its last 8 home games, averaging 28.4. The main team total was 22.3. - What happened: This one came down to the final minute. Auburn sat at 10 points from late in the second quarter until Tristan Ti'a ran in from 7 yards with 0:24 left. The extra point made it 17, clearing the alt by 1.5. - Worth watching: Auburn managed only 67 rushing yards on 35 carries. A team total this low is about the floor, and Auburn reached it, but a sluggish run game is worth noting before backing its overs again.
Winston Watkins Jr. 30+ receiving yards (-270 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Watkins had cleared 30 in all 7 games this year and 8 of his last 10, averaging 48.8 yards. - What happened: He caught 4 passes for 40 yards, clearing the line by 10.5, with a long of 14. - Worth watching: Watkins is not the big-play target in this offense, Harris is. His value is steady short catches, which fits a low yardage line better than a high one.
Winston Watkins Jr. 3+ receptions (-360 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Watkins had 3 or more catches in all 7 games this season and 8 of his last 10, averaging 4.3 over his last 3. - What happened: He finished with 4 catches, one more than he needed. - Worth watching: With Leavitt attempting 45 passes, there was plenty of volume to go around. His catch floor has held in every game this year.
How the game played out
Auburn tied it at 3 in the first quarter on a 23-yard McPherson field goal, then LSU took over with touchdown passes to Harris and Trey'Dez Green. Byrum Brown scored on a 1-yard run to make it 17-10, but LSU answered with the long Harris touchdown and a 4-yard Leavitt run with 17 seconds left in the half. Dilin Jones added a 12-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter and finished with 92 yards on 21 carries.
Trends to watch
- Harris had 9 catches for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is the downfield threat, while Watkins' longest catch went for 14.
- Auburn's Brown ran 19 times for 21 yards. The Auburn run game had no room in this matchup.
- LSU has now scored 23 or more in every game this year.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on these bets: alt lines, player props, and the CFB hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.