Miami vs. Notre Dame Recap: Mensah Volume and the Over Cash

Notre Dame beat Miami 31-24 in a game that swung twice. Spencer Porath opened the scoring with a 44-yard field goal, and CJ Carr threw touchdown passes to Jordan Faison from 27 yards and Micah Gilbert from 18 yards for a 17-3 halftime lead. Carr found Gilbert again from 20 yards early in the third to make it 24-3. Miami answered fast. Darian Mensah hit Elija Lofton and Cooper Barkate for 12-yard scores, and it was 24-17 with 5:29 left in the third. Nolan James Jr. pushed it back to 31-17 with a 1-yard run, and Mensah found Barkate from 1 yard to close within a touchdown. Miami's last two drives ended on downs and a fumble. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Darian Mensah 250+ passing yards (+144 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Mensah had cleared 250+ passing yards in 7 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20. The best price of +144 implied about 41%, and his recent run put him near 67%. - What happened: Mensah completed 24 of 43 passes for 276 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 26.5 yards past the line. All three touchdown passes came after Miami fell behind 24-3. Lofton caught 7 passes for 113 yards and Barkate caught 10 passes for 92 yards. - Worth watching: A plus-money price on a passer with this kind of recent form is worth a look. The game script helped here: Miami trailed by 21 and threw 43 times to get back in it.

ALT: Mark Fletcher Jr. 40+ rushing yards (-210 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Fletcher had cleared 40+ rushing yards in 8 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 17. The best price of -210 implied about 68%, against roughly 77% from recent games. - What happened: Fletcher ran 13 times for 57 yards with a long of 29, 17.5 yards past the line. He carried nearly half of Miami's 28 rushing attempts. - Worth watching: Thirteen carries is a light load, and he still cleared. His share of Miami's run game is what keeps a 40-yard line in range.

Nolan James Jr. anytime TD (-150 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: James had scored in 5 of his last 5, 8 of his last 10 and all 8 games this season as Notre Dame's lead back, with a main rushing line of 65.5. - What happened: James scored from 1 yard with 12:55 left to make it 31-17. That drive went 8 plays and 51 yards after Luke Talich intercepted Mensah. James finished with 16 carries for 52 yards and added a 36-yard catch. - Worth watching: His yardage came in under the main line, but the touchdown did not depend on it. The short-yardage role is what drives this market for him.

ALT: Over 47.5 total points (-256 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: The main total was 54.5, so this alt gave us 7 points of cushion. The two teams had cleared 47.5 in 18 of their combined last 20 games. - What happened: The teams combined for 55 points, 7.5 over the line. Carr and Mensah threw for 595 yards and 6 touchdowns between them. - Worth watching: Buying points below a main total is a steadier way to play an over, but the price gets heavy. The cushion is what made this one comfortable.

ALT: Notre Dame over 30.5 points (-130 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: DraftKings implied 30.8 points for Notre Dame. The Irish had scored 31+ in 8 of their last 10 and 7 of their last 8 at home, averaging 44.2. - What happened: Notre Dame scored exactly 31, clearing by 0.5. Carr completed 29 of 40 passes for 319 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Irish missed a field goal on their next drive after the James touchdown. - Worth watching: This was the thinnest margin of the night. A team total set this close to the implied number lives on the hook, so the price matters.

How the game played out

Notre Dame did not turn the ball over, and Miami gave it away twice. Notre Dame outgained Miami 412 to 377, and both teams converted 5 or 6 of 14 third downs. Gilbert caught 9 passes for 98 yards and 2 scores.

Trends to watch

• Mensah's volume: 43 attempts and 276 yards in a game Miami chased.
• Barkate's role: 10 catches and 2 touchdowns, including the 1-yard score.
• Gilbert as a scoring target: both of his touchdowns came from 20 yards or closer.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn how an alt line works and what a total is, or check the CFB hub.