Minnesota vs. Purdue Recap: Two Receiver Unders Cash
Purdue beat Minnesota 41-13 on Saturday night, and it was the Purdue ground game from start to finish. The Boilermakers ran 47 times for 305 yards, Fame Ijeboi carried 31 times for 195 yards and three touchdowns, and Purdue held the ball for 37:07. Minnesota managed 27 rushing yards on 13 carries and leaned on Drake Lindsey's arm, and he spread the ball around. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, both unders on Minnesota pass catchers.
What cashed
Noah Jennings under 79.5 receiving yards (alt, worth it at -200 or better): CASHED - Our read: Jennings is Minnesota's lead target, but he had stayed under 79.5 in 4 of 5 games this season and 9 of his last 10. Top-target status had not turned into big yardage. - What happened: Jennings caught 3 passes for 15 yards with a long of 8. He finished 64.5 yards under the number. Lindsey threw 39 times, but the yards went elsewhere: Jalen Smith had 89 on three catches, including a 42-yard touchdown, and Darius Taylor caught 7 passes for 51 yards. - Worth watching: When a lead target keeps landing under a yardage line, the under can stay live even in a high-volume passing game. Check the price first, since the line can move after a quiet game like this one.
Javon Tracy under 7.5 receptions (alt, worth it at -300 or better): CASHED - Our read: Tracy had stayed under 7.5 catches in 17 straight games and averaged 4.4 over his last 10. With Jennings as the lead target, eight catches was a big ask. - What happened: Tracy caught 5 passes for 75 yards with a long of 27. That is 2.5 under the line. He was productive per catch, but the catch count never threatened the number. - Worth watching: Reception unders on a non-lead receiver hold up when targets are split across several players, as they were here. The price on a number this far from his average will be steep, so this is more of a parlay leg than a straight play.
How the game played out
Purdue opened with a field goal and then a 14-play, 98-yard touchdown drive capped by George Burhenn's 15-yard catch from Ryan Browne. Minnesota got within 27-13 late in the third quarter on the Smith touchdown, but Purdue answered with a 9-play, 75-yard drive and a Browne 12-yard run. Ijeboi added his third score with 7:35 left. Minnesota turned it over twice and went 4 of 13 on third down.
Trends to watch
- Ijeboi's 31 carries are a true workhorse load. If Purdue keeps winning the time of possession battle, his rushing attempts and yardage props are worth a look.
- Minnesota ran only 13 times. When this offense falls behind, it becomes a passing team, which spreads targets across Smith, Taylor, Tracy and Jennings.
- Browne threw just 24 passes for 159 yards in a comfortable win. His passing props lean low when Purdue controls the game on the ground.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read our player prop and alt line guides, or find more games on the CFB hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.