NC State vs. Stanford Recap: Over Cashes in 31-28 Stanford Win

Stanford beat NC State 31-28 in a late Friday game that stayed close to the end. Davis Warren threw 4 touchdown passes for Stanford, and NC State pulled within three on a 16-yard CJ Bailey pass to Keenan Jackson with 1:20 left but got no closer. The teams combined for 858 yards and no turnovers. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 48.5 total points (-241 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Games had gone over 48.5 in 10 of 13 combined (NC State 5 of 6, Stanford 5 of 7), and Stanford was allowing 36.6 points a game with 96% red-zone scoring allowed. The main total sat at 54.5, six points above this alt. - What happened: The game finished with 59 points, 10.5 over the alt. The over was already in hand early in the fourth quarter, when a 2-yard Will Wilson run made it 28-21 and pushed the total to 49 with 14:50 to play. - Worth watching: Both offenses moved the ball: Stanford had 477 yards and NC State 381. Taking the alt well under a main total in a matchup with two capable offenses gave this play a big cushion.

CJ Bailey 225+ passing yards (-280 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Bailey had 225 or more in 5 of 6 starts, NC State was coming off a bye, and Stanford had given up 45 or more to Miami, Wake and Notre Dame. - What happened: He threw for 256 yards on 17-of-30 passing with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, clearing the line by 31.5. The big one was a 58-yard touchdown to Deandre Desinor in the first quarter. He also ran 9 times for 59 yards. - Worth watching: Bailey has now reached 225 in 6 of 7 starts. He did it on just 30 attempts by hitting big plays, which is a good sign for his yardage props going forward.

How the game played out

Stanford jumped out 14-0 in the first quarter on Warren touchdown passes to Nico Brown and Sedrick Irvin. NC State tied it at 14 with the Desinor score and a Wilson run, but Warren found Caden High from 26 yards out before halftime and Brown again in the third quarter. An Emmet Kenney field goal with 8:27 left made it 31-21, and NC State's final touchdown came too late. Micah Ford ran 22 times for 150 yards for Stanford, and Caden High caught 9 passes for 103 yards.

Trends to watch

• Warren completed 22 of 37 passes for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns. Stanford's offense can keep games high-scoring on its own.
• Ford's 22 carries and 150 yards make him a rushing prop to look at in Stanford's next matchup.
• Bailey's big-play passing (Desinor turned 3 catches into 79 yards, Jackson 3 into 56) means his yardage can clear without heavy volume.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on these bets: totals, alt lines, and the CFB hub.