Nevada vs. N Dakota St Recap: Both Team Totals Clear in 31-17 Game
North Dakota State beat Nevada 31-17 after spotting the Wolf Pack an 11-0 lead. The Bison scored 19 points in the last 6:04 of the first half, capped by Jackson Williams returning a missed field goal 100 yards for a touchdown as the half ended. Nevada pulled within 19-17 early in the third quarter, but Matthew Stenbroten returned the two-point try the other way for 2 points, and North Dakota State added a field goal and a touchdown to close it out. The Bison did not turn the ball over and held it for 38:09. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
ALT: North Dakota State over 25.5 team total points (-185 DraftKings / -200 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: NDSU had 26+ in 8 of its last 10 and 8 of 8 at home, averaging 32.8 over its last 10. DraftKings implied 28.5. - What happened: North Dakota State scored 31 and cleared by 5.5. Drew Klein's 39-yard field goal made it 24 late in the third quarter, and Nathan Hayes hit Reis Kessel for a 12-yard touchdown at 14:08 of the fourth to put it over. - Worth watching: The Bison ran 45 times for 192 yards and did not need a big passing night, as Hayes threw for 153 yards. Special teams and defense chipped in 9 of the 31 points, so the offense alone accounted for 22. This one needed the extra help to clear.
ALT: Nevada over 10.5 team total points (-170 DraftKings / -188 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Nevada had scored 11+ in 8 of its last 10 and 4 of 5 this season, and the low alt left room even against NDSU. - What happened: Nevada finished with 17, 6.5 over the line. AJ Bianco's 15-yard touchdown run plus a two-point run made it 8-0, and Joe McFadden's 39-yard field goal at 10:00 of the second quarter got the Wolf Pack to 11 before halftime. - Worth watching: Nevada got there early and then stalled, with two interceptions, a missed field goal and a turnover on downs after halftime. That is the case for a low alt: it can cash on one good stretch.
How the game played out
Hayes completed 19 of 25 passes for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns and added a 5-yard rushing score. Williams had 5 catches for 58 yards on top of his return touchdown. Bianco threw for 190 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, and his 19-yard touchdown pass to Gary Givens III was Nevada's only points of the second half. Nevada was flagged 7 times for 75 yards, North Dakota State 11 times for 98.
Trends to watch
- North Dakota State had 45 rushing attempts and controlled the clock. That kind of rushing volume shortens games, which is worth weighing on totals involving the Bison.
- Hayes was efficient but low-volume through the air. His passing yardage lines need a low number to make sense.
- Dominic Kelley led Nevada with 11 carries for 60 yards. Nevada ran only 21 times in total, so its backs depend on staying close.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about team totals and alt lines, or see today's college football board.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.