Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Recap: Irish Cover by a Hook

Notre Dame beat North Carolina 37-26 on Saturday, and the middle of this one was tighter than the final suggests. The Irish jumped out 21-7 behind three CJ Carr touchdown passes, then watched UNC pull within 21-20 when J. Jefferson returned the second-half kickoff 98 yards for a score. Notre Dame answered with a 17-play, 75-yard drive that took 9:10 off the clock and ended on a Carr 3-yard run, and UNC never got that close again. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Notre Dame -10.5: CASHED - Our read: Notre Dame came in 4-0, winning by an average of 34 points and allowing 8.3 a game, with safety Luke Talich back. North Carolina had scored 15 and 20 in its two games against FBS teams. - What happened: Notre Dame won by 11, so this covered by half a point. It came down to the last UNC touchdown with 2:39 left: Billy Edwards Jr. found Jelani Thurman from 10 yards out, and the extra point was blocked, leaving it 37-26. Talich also picked off Edwards, one of two UNC turnovers. - Worth watching: Laddering down from the main number of -21 is what got this home. The Irish defense held UNC to 77 rushing yards, but Edwards still threw for 208, so big Notre Dame spreads on the road deserve some caution.

Notre Dame ML (-1800 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Notre Dame was a 21-point road favorite and Carr had thrown for 234 or more in every game. We posted it as a parlay piece, not a straight bet at -1800. - What happened: Notre Dame outgained UNC 475 to 285 and held the ball for 37:04. The Irish ran for 241 yards on 45 carries, led by Jonaz Walton with 120 yards on 23 carries. - Worth watching: A price this steep only makes sense as a leg. Check the implied probability before stacking one into a parlay.

ALT: CJ Carr 200+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Carr had thrown for 234, 239, 237 and 253 in four starts with 9 TD and 1 INT, and cleared 230 even in the 52-0 and 49-10 blowouts. UNC had not faced a passing game this good. - What happened: Carr completed 21 of 29 passes for 234 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT, clearing the line by 34.5 yards. He added a 3-yard rushing score. Jordan Faison did most of the damage with 8 catches for 132 yards and touchdowns of 28 and 39 yards. - Worth watching: That is five straight games at 234 or better. Notre Dame leaned on the run with 45 attempts and still got Carr past 200 with room to spare, which is why the 200 alt keeps looking like the safer way in.

How the game played out

UNC hung around through the air. Edwards completed 17 of 28 passes for 208 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT, and Jordan Shipp caught 7 balls for 109 yards. The North Carolina ground game never got going at 77 yards on 23 carries, and Notre Dame won time of possession 37:04 to 22:56.

Trends to watch

• Jonaz Walton's workload: 23 carries for 120 yards. He carried the load while Notre Dame controlled the clock, so his rushing yards are worth a look.
• Jordan Faison as the top target: 8 catches for 132 yards and 2 TD. Nobody else on the Irish had more than 34 receiving yards.
• UNC's passing volume: Edwards threw 28 times and Shipp led the way with 109 yards. If UNC is a big underdog again, its pass catchers have a path to yards.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the point spread and implied probability, or see more at the college football hub.