Ole Miss vs. Florida Recap: Baugh and the Run Game Pull Away

Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28, but it was a one-score game until late in the third quarter. Florida led 17-6 at halftime, and Ole Miss got within 17-14 and then 24-21 on two Trinidad Chambliss touchdown runs in the third. From there Florida scored 28 of the next 35 points. The Gators ran for 302 yards on 53 carries, held the ball for 36:59 and didn't turn it over. Nine DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Florida ML (-176 at FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Ole Miss was missing three corners, two safeties and two linebackers, and RB Kewan Lacy was doubtful. Florida was at home and had already scored 44 in the SEC.
• What happened: Florida won by 24. It outgained Ole Miss 498 to 426 and won the turnover battle 2-0.
• Worth watching: The read matched the result. A healthy home favorite against a short-handed defense is a spot we'll keep looking at.

ALT: Florida +2.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Lacy was not expected to play, leaving Makhi Frazier and JT Lindsey to split carries. Florida was a 4-point home favorite, so this paid on a win or a loss by 2 or fewer.
• What happened: Florida won by 24, covering by 26.5. Frazier and Lindsey combined for 73 yards on 19 carries.
• Worth watching: Taking points with the better team at home is cheap insurance at a price close to the ML.

ALT: Over 49.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Ole Miss games had ended 41-38 and 32-24, Florida won 44-39 at Auburn, the main total was 58.5, and both secondaries were short-handed.
• What happened: The game finished at 80 points, over by 30.5. It was 23 at halftime, then the teams scored 57 in the second half.
• Worth watching: Two thin secondaries and two offenses that had already put up big numbers is a setup worth checking again.

ALT: Jadan Baugh 90+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Baugh was running for 152.7 yards a game on 18 carries a game, Ole Miss was without two starting linebackers, and the main line was 118.5.
• What happened: He ran 29 times for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns, with a long of 23, clearing 89.5 by 52.5.
• Worth watching: Almost 30 yards of cushion under the main line on a back with this workload is the right way to play him.

Jadan Baugh 21+ rush attempts (-115 at Bet365): CASHED

• Our read: Baugh averaged 18 carries a game, and Florida would lean on him against a thin Ole Miss front.
• What happened: He got 29 carries, 8.5 over the line. Florida ran it 53 times.
• Worth watching: When Florida is ahead and the other front is short-handed, the carries pile up.

Jadan Baugh anytime TD: CASHED

• Our read: Eight touchdowns in three games, and he is Florida's whole goal-line plan.
• What happened: He scored three times: a 4-yard run in the first quarter, a 2-yard run to finish a 15-play, 87-yard drive before halftime, and a 2-yard run in the fourth.
• Worth watching: All three scores came from inside the 5. That goal-line role is what makes this prop worth a look each week.

ALT: Trinidad Chambliss 250+ passing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Chambliss averages 308 passing yards a game, and with Lacy likely out, Ole Miss would lean harder on the pass.
• What happened: He threw for 298 yards on 25 of 34 passing, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, clearing 249.5 by 48.5.
• Worth watching: He got there on 34 attempts at 8.8 yards a throw. The alt rung gives room if Ole Miss runs fewer plays.

ALT: Deuce Alexander 5+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Alexander averages 6.7 catches and 98 yards a game as the Rebels' top target.
• What happened: He caught 7 passes for 134 yards, with a 49-yard long and a 2-yard touchdown, clearing 4.5 by 2.5.
• Worth watching: He led Ole Miss in catches and receiving yards. Top-target volume is the steady part of his game.

ALT: Vernell Brown III 3+ receptions (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Brown averages 4.7 catches and 82 yards a game, and Ole Miss was missing three corners and two safeties.
• What happened: He caught exactly 3 passes, good for 25 yards, clearing 2.5 by half a catch. Aaron Philo threw only 23 passes while Florida ran 53 times.
• Worth watching: This one was tight. When we expect Florida to lead and run, a receiver's catch count gets squeezed, so we'd size it down.

How the game played out

Chambliss also ran 7 times for 44 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he threw a two-point conversion to Horatio Fields. Ole Miss put up 426 yards, but it lost a fumble in the third quarter and Florida scored on the next drive.

Trends to watch

• Florida ran 53 times for 302 yards. Baugh volume props (carries, alt yards, anytime TD) all fit that script.
• Duke Clark took 12 carries for 126 yards. Baugh's yards aren't guaranteed even in a blowout, so we keep cushion on his yardage lines.
• Florida threw only 23 passes. Receiver catch props on Florida need a lower number when we expect a lead.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the anytime touchdown and player props, or see more at CFB.