Penn State vs. Michigan Recap: Becht's Late TD Pushes the Over

Michigan beat Penn State 21-18, and both of our plays on this game were decided by the same late throw. Penn State led 3-0 at halftime, Michigan scored two third-quarter touchdowns on the ground, and Tommy Carr's 12-yard run made it 21-11 with 2:58 left. Rocco Becht then hit Chase Sowell for a 24-yard touchdown with 1:11 to play. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Rocco Becht 1+ passing touchdowns (-195 DraftKings / -210 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Becht had a TD pass in 9 of his last 10 and 6 of his last 7 road games (1.7 per game), though he had thrown fewer lately, 0.7 per game over his last 3. - What happened: He was 28-of-44 passing with 267 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. The touchdown was the 24-yarder to Sowell with 1:11 left, and it was the only one he threw. Penn State's other touchdown came on a 2-yard Carson Hansen run. - Worth watching: This one cashed with almost no time to spare. The recent dip we flagged showed up again, so his TD props carry more risk until the red-zone passing returns.

ALT: Over 35.5 total points (-290 FanDuel / -293 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Penn State and Michigan games had cleared 35.5 in 17 of the last 20 (8 of 11 this season). - What happened: The game finished with 39 points, 3.5 over the line. Before the Sowell touchdown the total sat at 32, so the over needed that final score. - Worth watching: Only 3 points were scored in the first half. A low-scoring start does not kill a total, but this one shows how much can ride on the last few minutes.

How the game played out

Michigan's offense came almost entirely on the ground: 211 rushing yards against 90 passing. Bryson Kuzdzal scored on a 43-yard run, Jordan Marshall added a 1-yard touchdown, and Savion Hiter ran 11 times for 78 yards. Penn State cut it to 14-11 on Hansen's run and Becht's two-point pass to Benjamin Brahmer, but Carr's run restored a two-score lead. Penn State turned it over 3 times.

Trends to watch

• Sowell caught 11 passes for 151 yards and is clearly Becht's go-to receiver. His reception and yardage props are worth a look next week.
• Michigan averaged 6.0 yards per carry while its passers combined for 90 yards. The run game is this offense.
• Both teams threw 2 interceptions, and the first half produced a single field goal.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about totals and the hook, or see today's college football board.