Penn State vs. Northwestern Recap: 413 Rush Yards Decide It

Northwestern ran Penn State off the field, winning 34-13 behind 413 rushing yards on 55 carries. The Wildcats opened with a 50-yard Jackson Kleather field goal and an Aidan Chiles touchdown run, led 24-7 at halftime after two Joseph Himon II scores in the second quarter, and put it away with a Caleb Komolafe 1-yard run late in the third. Penn State finished with 48 rushing yards and two turnovers. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Northwestern +6.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Penn State came in with 12 players out, including leading receiver Koby Howard, four defensive ends and three corners, and was coming off blowing a 17-0 lead at Wisconsin. Northwestern had just taken Indiana to 29-23. The alt bought four extra points over the main number. - What happened: We never needed the points. Northwestern won outright by 21, clearing the alt by 27.5. The Wildcats outgained Penn State 506 to 291 and held the ball for 36:05. - Worth watching: When a favorite is this thin up front, a home underdog that can lean on the run is worth a look on the spread before the number adjusts.

ALT: Under 53.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Penn State ranks 4th in pass defense and was without Koby Howard, and Northwestern ranks 95th in rushing. We took seven points of cushion over the main total. - What happened: The game landed at 47 total points, 6.5 under the alt. Northwestern's ground game ate clock instead of stacking quick scores: Chiles threw only 14 passes, and Penn State's lone fourth-quarter touchdown came with a failed two-point try. - Worth watching: A full touchdown of cushion is what lets an alt under survive a script like this one, where one side runs it 55 times and still controls the scoreboard.

Aidan Chiles over 14.5 rushing yards (-112 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Chiles led Northwestern with 30 carries and 4 rushing touchdowns coming in, and Penn State was missing four defensive ends, so fewer sacks would eat into his rushing total. - What happened: Chiles ran 6 times for 21 yards, 6.5 over the line, with a long of 15. He also scored on a 2-yard run in the first quarter for a 10-0 lead, and completed 10 of 14 passes for 93 yards. - Worth watching: With Komolafe and Himon II carrying the load, Chiles only needed a handful of runs to clear a low number. The sack angle held up. Keep an eye on his carry count when the backs are rolling.

Rocco Becht 1+ passing touchdowns (-310 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Becht came in with 9 TD passes in 4 games and had thrown at least one in every start, facing a Northwestern pass defense ranked 80th. - What happened: It came late. Becht found Chase Sowell for a 16-yard touchdown with 7:53 left in the fourth quarter. He finished 26 of 41 passing for 243 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. - Worth watching: Becht keeps finding the end zone even on a rough night, and trailing scripts push his attempts up. At -310 the price is steep, so this one is about volume, not value.

How the game played out

Penn State's only first-half touchdown cut the deficit to 10-7 early in the second quarter. Himon II answered with a 38-yard run on the next scoring play and added an 11-yard score before the half. Komolafe carried 25 times for 188 yards, and Himon II added 162 on 10 carries. Northwestern picked off Becht twice and lost one fumble.

Trends to watch

• Northwestern rushed 55 times for 413 yards. Komolafe's 25 carries make him the back to watch on rushing-yard lines going forward.
• Penn State ran 22 times for 48 yards. Until its injury list shrinks, its offense looks like it will lean on Becht's arm.
• Becht has now thrown a touchdown pass in every start this season, even with Howard out.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alt lines? Start with our alt line guide and totals explainer, or head to the college football hub.