DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Thu, Oct 8

South Alabama vs. Arkansas St Recap: 105-Point Shootout

Final · South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves
South Alabama 56, Arkansas St 49
Board plays on this game
3 of 5 hit. We post the misses too.

South Alabama beat Arkansas State 56-49 on Thursday night in a game with 105 total points. Keenan Phillips scored four touchdowns for South Alabama, three on the ground and one on a 100-yard kickoff return, and the Jaguars ran for 296 yards on 50 carries. Arkansas State's Trey Owens threw for 418 yards and four touchdowns and pulled his team within 56-49 with 6:51 left, but South Alabama held on. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 51.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: South Alabama scores 31-35 a game and allows 31-39, four of its five games had gone over, and it had given up 73 points in two road games. - What happened: 105 total points, 53.5 over the alt line. The teams combined for 62 points in the first half alone, and this line was gone before halftime. - Worth watching: When both defenses give up 30-plus a game, a lowered alt over is one of the cleaner ways to play the pace.

ALT: South Alabama over 21.5 team total points: CASHED - Our read: South Alabama averaged 35.4 points and had cleared 21.5 in four of five games. Arkansas State allowed 23.4 a game and gave up 42 to Memphis and 31 to TCU. - What happened: South Alabama scored 56, 34.5 over. It passed the line late in the second quarter, when the first of Jared Hollins' two 3-yard touchdown runs made it 28-21. - Worth watching: The ground game did the work: Phillips had 157 yards on 19 carries and PJ Martin added 95 on 16. As long as that rushing volume holds, alt team total overs fit this offense.

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ALT: South Alabama +10.5: CASHED - Our read: Arkansas State's offense averaged 24 points and had scored 17 and 20 in its last two, and four of South Alabama's five games were decided inside 10.5 or won outright. - What happened: South Alabama won outright by 7, so the alt line cleared by 17.5. Arkansas State's late push cut a 21-point lead to 7, still well inside the cushion. - Worth watching: Arkansas State threw 2 interceptions and lost a fumble. South Alabama won the turnover battle 3 to 1.

How the game played out

This was a shootout from the first quarter. South Alabama took a 14-7 lead when Phillips returned a kickoff 100 yards, then scored three touchdowns in the final 4:37 of the first half to lead 34-28 at the break. Phillips added a 23-yard run and a 42-yard run after halftime, and Hollins threw a 7-yard touchdown to Rod Gibbs. Arkansas State outgained South Alabama 516 yards to 372 and converted 8 of 10 third downs, but three turnovers kept it chasing.

Trends to watch

  • Hunter Summers caught 9 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns for Arkansas State. He is the volume option in a pass-heavy attack.
  • Hollins threw only 10 passes but ran for two scores. South Alabama's rushing touchdowns are spread across Phillips, Martin and the quarterback.
  • Arkansas State's defense allowed 296 rushing yards. Opposing backs' rushing props deserve a look against them.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Read up on the total and alt line, or see the college football board.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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