South Florida vs. UTSA Recap: Peterson Scores Late for the Win

UTSA beat South Florida 31-24 on Thursday night with a touchdown in the final seconds. USF took a 24-23 lead on an 11-yard D.J. Crowther touchdown catch with 1:56 left, and UTSA answered with A'Marion Peterson's 1-yard run with 15 seconds to go, plus a two-point pass from Owen McCown to David Amador II. UTSA outgained USF 486 yards to 288. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

UTSA ML (-230 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: UTSA is 35-5 at the Alamodome since 2020 and scores 31.4 a game, while USF quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. had thrown for 205 and 78 yards in his last two starts. - What happened: UTSA won 31-24, but it took the last drive. UTSA ran for 277 yards, and Peterson scored three times on 12 carries for 92 yards, including a 53-yard run. - Worth watching: The yardage edge was real. A late scare at -230 is a reminder that favorites in this range still lose sometimes.

ALT: UTSA +3.5: CASHED - Our read: Same home-field edge as the moneyline with a field goal of cushion: UTSA only had to avoid losing by 4 or more. - What happened: UTSA won by 7, clearing the alt line by 10.5. Even when USF led 24-23 late, this was still covered. - Worth watching: Taking a favorite at plus points protects you from exactly this kind of late swing. It is a cheaper way to hold the same read.

ALT: Under 59.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: The total crashed from 60.5 to 49.5 with the bigger money on the under. USF allowed 14.6 a game, and both teams were 3-2 to the under. - What happened: 55 total points, 4.5 under the alt line. Three Michael Petro field goals (26, 41 and 31 yards) kept UTSA drives from turning into seven. - Worth watching: The last score, with 15 seconds left, added eight points on its own. An alt under well above the main number gives room for a wild finish.

ALT: South Florida under 27.5 team total points: CASHED - Our read: USF had 27 points combined over its previous two games, and the market implied about 22 for the Bulls on the road. - What happened: USF scored 24, 3.5 under. Van Buren went 16 of 29 passing with 177 yards and two touchdowns, and Crowther ran 20 times for 83 yards and a score. - Worth watching: USF converted only 3 of 11 third downs. As long as the offense stalls on third down, team total unders have support.

How the game played out

USF led 14-7 after one quarter on a 15-yard Crowther run and a 42-yard pass from Van Buren to Bryson Rodgers. UTSA tied it at 17 in the third on Peterson's second score and moved ahead with two Petro field goals before the final-minute swings. UTSA converted 8 of 14 third downs and held the ball for 32:25. Neither team turned it over.

Trends to watch

• Peterson had 3 touchdowns on 12 carries while Will Henderson III had 13 carries and 86 yards. Peterson looks like the short-yardage back, which matters for anytime TD markets.
• Amador caught 9 passes for 70 yards. He was McCown's main target in this one.
• USF's defense gave up 277 rushing yards. Opponents' rushing props are worth a look against them.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Read up on the point spread and total, or see the college football board.