TCU vs. Baylor Recap: Frogs Win 17-6, TCU +10.5 Cashes Easily

TCU beat Baylor 17-6 in a game decided by defense. Jaden Craig hit Ed Small for a 25-yard touchdown in the first quarter, Baylor answered with two Rhett Armstrong field goals to cut it to 7-6 at the half, and TCU needed just 44 seconds to open the third quarter with a 75-yard touchdown drive. Baylor did not score after halftime, and its last two drives ended on downs. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: TCU +10.5 (-215 FanDuel / -242 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: TCU would have covered +10.5 in 9 of its last 10 and 5 of 5 this season, and with a main total of 50.5 we expected a close game where 10.5 points was plenty of cushion. - What happened: TCU won outright by 11, so the alt cleared by 21.5 points. The second-half opening drive, capped by Craig's 8-yard touchdown pass to Ka'Morreun Pimpton, made it 14-6, and Nate McCashland's 25-yard field goal at the end of a 14-play drive pushed it to 17-6. - Worth watching: Baylor converted 6 of 21 third downs and finished with 54 rushing yards on 34 carries. When a defense holds a team to numbers like that, a double-digit alt on the underdog has a lot of room for error.

Kari Ashley 4+ receptions (-251 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Ashley had 4+ catches in 4 of 5 games, averaging 5.0 catches, and his yardage main sat at 48.5. - What happened: Ashley caught exactly 4 passes for 18 yards, clearing the 3.5 line by half a catch. He also carried 3 times. - Worth watching: This one was tight. Craig threw 36 times with Jordan Dwyer and Small taking most of the volume, while Ashley's 4 catches went for 18 yards total. The reception floor held, but a lower-volume passing night could leave him short.

How the game played out

Craig went 21-of-36 passing with 294 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Dwyer caught 6 passes for 150 yards, including a 67-yarder, and Small added 7 catches for 91 yards and the opening score. On the other side, DJ Lagway completed 22 of 53 passes for 256 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, and Koron Hayward had 3 sacks for TCU. A 14-play Baylor drive in the first quarter came away empty on a missed field goal.

Trends to watch

• Dwyer's 150 yards on 6 catches came with big plays. His receiving yardage is worth a look, though long gains drive the number.
• TCU ran for 33 yards on 30 carries. This offense runs through Craig's arm, which supports his passing props more than any rushing angle.
• Baylor's run game managed 54 yards. Until that changes, Lagway carries the offense, and 53 attempts is the kind of volume that matters for his completion and attempt props.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about alt lines and player props, or see today's college football board.