Texas State vs. Oregon State Recap: Bobcats Run Wild, +6.5 Cashes Big

Texas State beat Oregon State 42-21 in Corvallis, running all over the Beavers. The Bobcats scored on short runs by Davian Jackson and Torrance Burgess Jr. to lead 14-0 in the first quarter, and after AJ Newberry's 9-yard run got Oregon State on the board, Texas State scored the next 28 points. Brad Jackson ran for one touchdown and threw for another early in the fourth to make it 42-7 before two late Oregon State scores. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Texas State +6.5 (-123 DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Texas State had been landing inside this number consistently over its recent games, and our engine had it near 80% against about 56% implied at -128.
• What happened: Texas State won outright by 21, clearing the line by 27.5. The Bobcats piled up 600 total yards, 386 of them on the ground.
• Worth watching: Texas State ran 62 times. A team that can lean on the run like this controls the clock (35:52 here), and that kind of game script keeps it competitive as an underdog.

ALT: Chris Dawn Jr. 40+ receiving yards (-275 FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Dawn had cleared 40 receiving yards in each of his last ten games. At -275 (73% implied) we had it closer to 89%.
• What happened: Dawn caught 7 passes for 48 yards, with a long of 13, clearing the rung by 8.5. It was closer than his recent run suggested because Texas State threw only 20 times.
• Worth watching: Dawn led Texas State in catches, but the volume of the passing game matters here. When Texas State runs this much, his yardage comes in short gains, so a low rung is the right way to play him.

How the game played out

Burgess carried 28 times for 196 yards and a touchdown, with a long of 63. Davian Jackson added 107 yards and 3 touchdowns on 19 carries, and Brad Jackson ran for 87 more while completing 16 of 20 passes for 214 yards. Texas State converted 10-15 on third down. Oregon State threw for 267 yards, with Jesse Legree catching 8 passes for 99, but ran for only 80 on 26 attempts. Each team turned it over twice.

Trends to watch

• Torrance Burgess Jr. handled 28 carries. That kind of workload makes his rushing yardage and attempts props worth a look.
• Davian Jackson scored three short touchdowns. He looks like the goal-line back in this offense.
• Oregon State's run defense allowed 386 yards. Opposing rushing props against the Beavers deserve a look until that changes.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about point spreads and alt lines. More at /cfb.