DARIMARKET
CFB · Game recap · Sat, Oct 10

UAB vs. Memphis Recap: 28 Straight Points Cash Four Memphis Plays

Final · UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers
Memphis 38, UAB 13
Board plays on this game
4 of 4 hit.

Memphis beat UAB 38-13, but it did not look that way at halftime. UAB led 13-10 at the break after Jonah Delange hit field goals from 49 and 57 yards. Memphis then scored the final 28 points of the game. UAB held the ball for 33:42 but turned it over three times (two fumbles and an interception), converted just 3 of 15 third downs and did not score after halftime. Memphis did not turn it over. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all posted before kickoff.

What cashed

Memphis ML (-650 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Memphis was a 14.5-point home favorite, and we took the straight win. - What happened: Memphis trailed at the half, then took the lead for good at 9:33 of the third quarter when Jaylin Carter finished a 9-play, 81-yard drive with a 24-yard run. Memphis won by 25. - Worth watching: At -650 this is a short-priced leg, not a standalone bet. Check the implied probability before laying that much.

ALT: Memphis -7.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: The main line was Memphis -14.5 at home, and Dimers projected 34-20. The alt only needed a win by more than a touchdown. - What happened: The cover came on the next Memphis possession, a 5-play, 86-yard drive capped by a 45-yard touchdown pass from Marcus Stokes to Tychaun Chapman that made it 24-13. Memphis won by 25, clearing -7.5 by 17.5. - Worth watching: Trimming seven points off the main number gave room for a slow first half like this one. That is the case for the alt when the projection is well clear of the main spread.

These plays were on the board before kickoff.Join the board free →

ALT: Memphis over 24.5 team total points: CASHED - Our read: Memphis had scored 25+ in 4 of 5 games this season and 8 of its last 10, and Dimers projected 34. - What happened: Memphis scored 38, clearing 24.5 by 13.5. It sat at 24 after the Chapman touchdown and went over early in the fourth: UAB fumbled, and Memphis turned the short field into an 8-play, 28-yard drive ending in a 1-yard Hunter Tipton run. - Worth watching: Memphis only had 10 points at the half and still got there. A team total keyed to a strong scoring history gives more paths to the number than a full-game side.

ALT: Under 62.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: AccuWeather had gusts near 28 mph and an 85% rain chance in Memphis at kickoff, and the books already leaned under at -115. The alt gave 8 points over the 54.5 main. - What happened: The teams combined for 51 points, 11.5 under the line and also under the 54.5 main. The first half produced 23 points, and UAB was shut out after the break. - Worth watching: Adding a cushion to a total that the market already leans on is a sensible way to play a weather read. Check the forecast close to kickoff before betting it.

How the game played out

Memphis did most of its damage on the ground. Carter finished with 19 carries for 132 yards and two touchdowns, and Memphis ran for 230 yards on 46 attempts. Stokes completed 11 of 21 passes for 164 yards and two scores, the second an 11-yarder to Aidan O'Callaghan with 5:04 left. UAB ran 49 times for 179 yards, but its second drive ended in a fumble after 12 plays and 67 yards, and the one after that ended in an interception.

Trends to watch

  • Carter's workload: 19 carries, 132 yards and two touchdowns. He is the back to watch for rushing yards and anytime TD props.
  • Memphis passing volume: Stokes threw 21 times. When Memphis can run like this, its passing props carry less upside.
  • UAB ball security: three turnovers, and Memphis scored a touchdown on the drive after the fourth-quarter fumble. Opponents' team totals are worth a look when that keeps up.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more, see alt lines, totals and our CFB hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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