USC vs. Penn State Recap: King Miller, Maiava Props Cash in 31-23 Win

USC beat Penn State 31-23 in a game that was tied 17-17 at the half. Penn State took its only lead on a 35-yard field goal early in the third quarter, and USC answered with a 10-play, 75-yard drive that King Miller finished with a 13-yard touchdown run. After another Penn State field goal cut it to 24-23, Jayden Maiava hit Kayden Dixon-Wyatt for a 10-yard score with 11:11 left. Penn State's last two possessions ended in a punt and a fumble. USC won the turnover battle 1-0 and converted 5 of 11 third downs to Penn State's 2 of 12. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: USC +6.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Penn State's Friday report ruled out four defensive ends, three corners, two linebackers and its top receiver. Getting 6.5 points with the healthier team was the cushion. - What happened: USC did not need the points. The main line was USC +1.5, and the Trojans won outright by 8, clearing +6.5 by 14.5. They out-gained Penn State 430 to 357 and did not turn it over. - Worth watching: Taking extra points on the side we already like gives room for a close game to go either way. That trade costs price, so it only makes sense when the read is strong.

King Miller 60+ rushing yards: CASHED - Our read: Miller had gone over 71.5 rushing yards in each of his last four games, and Penn State was allowing 173 rushing yards a game after giving up 413 to Northwestern. - What happened: Miller ran 19 times for 102 yards and a touchdown, clearing 59.5 by 42.5. His long was only 16, so this came on steady volume rather than one big run. His 13-yard score with 5:38 left in the third put USC back in front for good. - Worth watching: He took 19 of USC's 30 rushing attempts. That share is what makes his yardage props worth checking each week.

Jayden Maiava 28+ pass attempts: CASHED - Our read: Maiava had 28+ attempts in 5 of 6 games and 9 of his last 10, and USC's slow-starting run game plus a road White Out pointed to volume through the air. - What happened: Maiava threw 33 times, clearing 27.5 by 5.5. He completed 21 passes for 301 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. - Worth watching: Attempts props depend on game script, and a one-score game kept USC throwing. His history says 28 is a sensible floor.

Jayden Maiava under 24.5 completions: CASHED - Our read: Maiava averaged 21.8 completions, and Penn State was allowing 119.6 passing yards a game, 3rd in FBS. - What happened: Maiava finished with 21 completions, 3.5 under the line. He made them count at 9.1 yards per attempt, with Trent Mosley catching 9 passes for 111 yards and a score and Tanook Hines adding 82 yards and a score. - Worth watching: Both Maiava props cashed because he threw a lot without completing at a high rate. That pairing is worth looking at again when the defense is tough on completions.

Rocco Becht 1+ passing TDs: CASHED - Our read: Becht had thrown a touchdown in 4 of 5 games this season and 9 of his last 10. - What happened: Becht found Andrew Rappleyea for a 13-yard score at 7:26 of the first quarter, capping a 6-play, 75-yard drive that tied it 7-7. That was the only one he needed. - Worth watching: Rappleyea led Penn State with 7 catches and caught the score. With a target that steady, a 1+ passing TD line remains a reasonable look for Becht.

How the game played out

Penn State could not run the ball. It carried 31 times for 68 yards, with Carson Hansen at 14 carries for 28 yards and a 3-yard touchdown. After that score tied it 14-14 in the second quarter, Penn State's remaining points all came on Ryan Barker field goals from 48, 35 and 26 yards. USC scored touchdowns on four drives to Penn State's two, and that was the difference.

Trends to watch

• Miller's workload: 19 carries for 102 yards. Volume backs with a steady share are the profile we like for rushing yards overs.
• Mosley's usage: 9 catches for 111 yards and the opening touchdown. He was Maiava's top target.
• Penn State's ground game: 68 rushing yards on 31 carries. That puts more of the offense on Becht's arm going forward.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more, see player props, alt lines and our CFB hub.