Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Recap: Kentucky Wins 34-17, Five Plays Cash

Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 34-17 at home. Vanderbilt scored first and led 10-0 early in the second quarter, but Kentucky answered with three straight touchdowns to go up 21-10 in the third. The Commodores cut it to 21-17 on a 34-yard Jared Curtis touchdown pass, then Kentucky closed with two field goals and a 1-yard Kenny Minchey touchdown run. Kentucky ran for 173 yards on 39 carries, while Vanderbilt gained 15 rushing yards on 17 attempts and turned it over twice. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Vanderbilt over 14.5 points (-225 DraftKings / -250 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Vanderbilt had scored 15+ in 9 of its last 10, at about 30 a game, and Kentucky had allowed 15+ in 7 of its last 10. - What happened: Vanderbilt scored 17, 2.5 over the line. It had 10 by the middle of the second quarter, and Curtis found Ja'Cory Thomas for the 34-yard score with 5:45 left in the third to get it over. - Worth watching: The offense got there almost entirely through the air, with 247 of its 262 yards coming on passes. That passing volume is what keeps this number in range when the run game stalls.

Junior Sherrill 70+ receiving yards (-161 DraftKings / -162 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Sherrill had 70+ in 9 of his last 10, averaging 94 yards over that span and 87 over his last 3. - What happened: He caught 8 passes for 78 yards, 8.5 over the 69.5 line. He had 59 through three quarters, and a 16-yard catch early in the fourth put him past the number. His long was 16, so this was all steady short-area work. - Worth watching: His 8 catches led Vanderbilt, with no other receiver above 5. That kind of target share makes the 70 line reachable without a big play.

ALT: Over 49.5 total points (-131 DraftKings / -136 FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Kentucky and Vanderbilt games had both gone over 49.5 in 8 of their last 10, the main total was 52.5, and their last-10 average was 57.6. - What happened: The teams combined for 51, 1.5 over the line. The score sat at 27-17, or 44 points, until Minchey's 1-yard run with 5:11 left pushed it over. - Worth watching: This one needed a late touchdown. Taking the alt 3 points under the main total is what gave it room.

Jared Curtis 175+ passing yards (-280 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Curtis had cleared 175 in all 5 of his last 5 and 5 of 6 this year, averaging 207, and 231.7 over his last 3. - What happened: He completed 27 of 36 passes for 247 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 72.5 over the 174.5 line. He had 130 at halftime, and the same 16-yard throw to Sherrill early in the fourth moved him past 175. - Worth watching: Vanderbilt ran for just 15 yards, so the offense leaned on his arm with 36 attempts. When the ground game is that thin, his yardage floor goes up.

Kenny Darby 40+ receiving yards (-275 FanDuel / -320 DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Kentucky's leading receiver (34 catches, 436 yards) had 40+ in 6 of 7 and all 4 home games, averaging 62.3, and with WR Nic Anderson out, more targets were headed his way. - What happened: He caught 4 passes for 71 yards, 31.5 over the 39.5 line. A 44-yard catch early in the third took him to 48 and set up Brennen Ward's 10-yard touchdown run. He added a 20-yarder later in the quarter. - Worth watching: He got there on only four catches, and Kentucky threw just 26 passes. His number depends on a couple of downfield shots, so the price matters more than the trend.

How the game played out

Kentucky won it on the ground. Jovantae Barnes ran 15 times for 68 yards and Jason Patterson added 44, while Minchey completed 19 of 26 passes for 203 yards. Vanderbilt lost a fumble and threw an interception on back-to-back second-half drives, and Kentucky turned them into 10 points. Kentucky held the ball for 31:03.

Trends to watch

• Vanderbilt averaged 0.9 yards per rush. When the run game stalls like that, Curtis and Sherrill carry the offense, which points toward their yardage lines.
• Kentucky was flagged 3 times for 24 yards, against 9 penalties for 75 yards by Vanderbilt. The cleaner team controlled the clock and the second half.
• The total landed just over 49.5 after a 10-point fourth quarter, a reminder of how much a single late score can swing an alt total.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about alt lines and totals, or see today's college football board.