Virginia vs. Wake Forest Recap: Deacons Roll 51-7, Four Plays Cash
Wake Forest beat Virginia 51-7, and it was never close. The Demon Deacons scored on their opening drive, led 20-0 at halftime and put up 24 more points in the third quarter. Wake ran for 309 yards on 51 carries, finished with 538 total yards and converted 9 of 14 third downs while Virginia managed 16 rushing yards. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, from the moneyline to both quarterbacks' passing props.
What cashed
Wake Forest ML (-520 at DraftKings / -490 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Wake Forest had won 8 of its last 10 and 6 of 7 this season, with four straight wins coming in. Virginia had lost 5 of its last 10. - What happened: Ty Clark III scored from 2 yards out on a 5-play, 51-yard opening drive, and Wake never trailed. Clark finished with three rushing touchdowns and the Deacons won by 44. - Worth watching: A heavy favorite moneyline only makes sense as a building block at this price. Wake's form backed it up here.
ALT: Wake Forest over 26.5 team points (-215 at DraftKings / -230 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Wake had scored 27 or more in 9 of its last 10 and 6 of 7 this season, and it fit the same game script as the moneyline and the Gio Lopez passing play. - What happened: Wake crossed the line with 7:07 left in the third quarter, when Lopez hit Carlos Hernandez for a 10-yard touchdown to make it 30-0. The Deacons finished with 51, clearing by 24.5. - Worth watching: When a favorite's offense is this consistent, the alt team total can be a cleaner way to play the game than laying a big spread.
ALT: Gio Lopez 200+ passing yards (-390 at FanDuel / -392 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Lopez had 200 or more passing yards in 9 of his last 10 and in all 5 of his games this season, so the alt line sat well below his usual output. - What happened: Lopez threw for 229 yards on 13-of-21 passing, with a touchdown and no interceptions, clearing by 29.5. Hernandez was his top target with 8 catches for 136 yards. Lopez also ran 13 times for 64 yards. - Worth watching: Wake leaned on the run once it was ahead, so Lopez got there on efficiency (10.9 yards per attempt) rather than volume. In a closer game, the volume should be there too.
ALT: Beau Pribula 150+ passing yards (-235 at FanDuel / -173 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Pribula had cleared 150 passing yards in 7 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 18. The best price, -173, implied about 63 percent against roughly 71 percent from his recent games. - What happened: Pribula threw for 212 yards on 20-of-29 passing, with a touchdown and an interception, clearing by 62.5. His best throw was a 47-yard touchdown to Da'Shawn Martin late in the third quarter. Martin finished with 9 catches for 119 yards. - Worth watching: A trailing quarterback in a lopsided game is a natural fit for a passing-yards over. Virginia had almost no run game (16 yards on 19 carries), so the ball stayed in the air.
How the game played out
Connor Calvert kicked three field goals and Wake scored on its first five possessions. Virginia's drives kept ending short: the Cavaliers turned it over on downs three times and went 1-for-12 on third down. The third quarter turned it into a rout, with three Wake touchdowns between the 7:07 and 1:57 marks.
Trends to watch
- Wake's ground game had three different runners score: Clark (three times), Jamar Searcy and Kyndall McCaleb.
- Hernandez had 8 catches for 136 yards, the clear lead receiver for Lopez.
- Virginia's passing volume, 314 yards across two quarterbacks, came from playing from behind all day.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn more about the moneyline and implied probability, or see the CFB hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.