Western KY vs. New Mexico St Recap: James Jones Runs for 155 in Rout

New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky 34-13 on Thursday night, and it was never close after the second quarter. The Aggies kicked two field goals in the first quarter, then took over in the second with a 45-yard pick-six by De'Marcus Peters and a 1-yard Adam Damante run to lead 20-6 at the half. James Jones ran for 155 yards and closed it with a 7-yard touchdown run late in the fourth. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

New Mexico State moneyline (-125 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Western Kentucky had been giving up about 220 rushing yards a game at 6.2 per carry, and Jones was averaging 6.2 a carry. The Hilltoppers were also winless against FBS teams, losing those games by 19.5 a game. - What happened: New Mexico State led from the 2:35 mark of the first quarter on and won by 21. The Aggies ran for 206 yards on 34 carries. - Worth watching: When a home side has the run game edge and the price sits near -125, the moneyline is a clean way to play it. We set a pass point past -140.

New Mexico State -2.5 (-105 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Jones against a soft run defense, with Western Kentucky missing WR K.D. Hutchinson and OL Karsten Upchurch. The risk we flagged was a QB rotation between Hedden and Damante. - What happened: A 21-point win cleared the number by 18.5. Damante threw every New Mexico State pass (15 of 26, 146 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and found TK King for a 15-yard score early in the third. - Worth watching: The defense and the run game carried this one more than the passing game did. That profile is worth a look again at a short number.

ALT: New Mexico State +7.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: A home favorite getting 10 points of cushion against a Western Kentucky defense allowing 41 a game. - What happened: New Mexico State won outright by 21, so this cleared by 28.5. It was never in danger. - Worth watching: Taking points with the side you like trades price for safety. It fits when the main spread is short and you want room for a bad bounce.

ALT: James Jones 60+ rushing yards (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Jones had gone 78 or more yards in three of his four games (137, 78, 112) at 6.2 a carry, and Western Kentucky allows about 220 rushing yards a game. - What happened: Jones finished with 20 carries for 155 yards and a touchdown, a 7.8 average with a long of 46. That is 95.5 yards past the 59.5 line. His 7-yard score at 3:18 of the fourth capped an 8-play, 63-yard drive. - Worth watching: Twenty carries is a lead-back workload. As long as that volume holds against weak run defenses, his rushing line is worth checking each week.

ALT: Under 65.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Two 1-3 offenses. Western Kentucky was scoring 21.5 a game, and New Mexico State had scored 19 and 18 in its last two with QB play in flux. The alt gave us ten points of cushion over the main total of 55.5. - What happened: The game landed on 47 total points, 18.5 under the line. Neither team scored in the fourth quarter until Jones found the end zone with 3:18 left. - Worth watching: Unders built on two struggling offenses held up here. The alt cushion was not needed, but it is the reason this was stress-free.

ALT: Western Kentucky under 30.5 team total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Western Kentucky had scored 14, 20 and 0 in its three FBS games, ranked 114th in total offense, and was without Hutchinson and Upchurch. - What happened: The Hilltoppers scored 13, finishing 17.5 under. They had two Karl Campbell field goals and one touchdown, a 9-yard Brock Glenn run in the third. They ran for 43 yards on 31 carries and turned it over on downs three times. - Worth watching: An offense that cannot run the ball has a hard ceiling. Western Kentucky team totals stay on our radar while that holds.

How the game played out

Western Kentucky actually outgained New Mexico State, 357 yards to 352. Rodney Tisdale Jr. completed 29 of 40 passes for 314 yards, and Jonathan Stafford Jr. caught 10 balls for 108. But the Hilltoppers were 7-18 on third down, took 11 penalties for 84 yards, and threw the pick-six that swung the second quarter. Yards between the 20s did not turn into points.

Trends to watch

• Jones volume: 20 carries and 155 yards against a defense that came in giving up big rushing numbers. His rushing props are worth a look in matchups like this one.
• Western Kentucky run game: 43 rushing yards on 31 attempts, with Tisdale at -14 on 10 carries. A one-dimensional offense makes team-total unders worth checking.
• New Mexico State third downs: The Aggies were 2-12 on third down and still scored 34. A defensive touchdown and explosive runs did the work, which is not something to count on every week.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on alt lines, team totals and the college football hub.