Wisconsin vs. Penn State Recap: Two Late Joseph TDs Flip It

Wisconsin beat Penn State 24-20 with two touchdowns in the final 3:31. Penn State led 17-0 in the second quarter, helped by a 51-yard Josiah Zayas interception return, and still led 20-10 late in the fourth. Then Colton Joseph hit Eugene Hilton Jr. from 11 yards out and found Jacob Harris for a 72-yard score with 1:13 left. Penn State's offense managed 233 yards. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, all posted before kickoff, and all three leaned on the same read: a low-scoring game with Penn State's top receiver out.

What cashed

ALT: Wisconsin +17.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: WR Koby Howard was ruled out, and he had 344 of Penn State's 751 receiving yards. The total was only 43.5 with Penn State -10, so 17.5 points was a lot of room.
• What happened: Wisconsin won outright, covering by 21.5. Penn State's passing game produced 114 yards on 29 attempts.
• Worth watching: Points in a low-total game, against a favorite missing its top receiver, is a spot worth checking again.

ALT: Under 51.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Darius called this one. The main total was 43.5, Penn State had allowed 22 points in three games, and Howard (114.7 yards per game) was out.
• What happened: 44 total points, 7.5 under. It was 20-10 with 3:31 left. The main 43.5 would have gone over by half a point after the two late scores.
• Worth watching: This is exactly what the alt cushion is for in a game decided late.

ALT: Wisconsin team total Under 24.5 (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED

• Our read: Penn State led the nation in third-down defense and pass-efficiency defense. A 44.5 total with Penn State -9.5 implied about 17.5 for Wisconsin, so the alt gave us 7 points of cushion.
• What happened: Wisconsin scored 24, under by 0.5. It had 10 points before scoring 14 in the last 3:31. Joseph threw 3 interceptions on 38 attempts, and Wisconsin converted 4 of 15 third downs.
• Worth watching: The defense played to the read for most of the night. A half-point margin isn't proof, but the numbers behind it were sound.

How the game played out

Penn State's defense had three interceptions, including the pick-six, and held Wisconsin to 10 points until the final 3:31. Its offense could not add to the lead: Rocco Becht completed 12 of 29 passes for 114 yards, and James Peoples ran 14 times for 67. Chase Sowell led Penn State's receivers with 6 catches for 70. Wisconsin outgained Penn State 355 to 233 despite its three turnovers, and Harris finished with 5 catches for 105 yards.

Trends to watch

• Howard's absence showed up everywhere in Penn State's offense: 114 passing yards and 233 total. Until he is back, Penn State points look hard to come by.
• The main total of 43.5 would have gone over by half a point, while the alt at 51.5 stayed under by 7.5. That cushion is worth paying for in games decided late.
• Penn State's defense forced three interceptions and held Wisconsin to 4 of 15 on third down. Opponent team total unders against this unit are worth a look.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these terms? Read up on the alt line, the total and the hook.