DARIMARKET
MLB · Game recap · Sun, Oct 4

Braves vs. Dodgers Recap: Snell Unders and Low Totals Cash in Game 2

Final · Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Braves 3, Dodgers 2
Board plays on this game
5 of 10 hit. We post the misses too.

The Braves beat the Dodgers 3-2 in Game 2 of the NLDS, and the series is tied 1-1. Atlanta scored first when Mauricio Dubon beat out an infield single to score Ronald Acuna Jr. in the 1st. Freddie Freeman tied it with a solo homer to right in the 4th, but Michael Harris II scored on a Kris Bubic wild pitch in the 5th and doubled home Matt Olson in the 7th. Max Muncy's solo homer in the 9th made it 3-2, and Raisel Iglesias got the final out for the save. Five DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game: three on Blake Snell and two on the run total.

What cashed

Blake Snell under 16.5 outs (-106 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Snell made only 9 starts this season around shoulder fatigue, elbow surgery and September groin tightness, averaged 4.2 innings, and went 4.0, 1.0 and 5.2 in his last three. - What happened: Snell lasted 3.2 innings, which is 11 outs, 5.5 under the line. He needed 90 pitches to get there, with 5 walks, and Brock Stewart took over in the 4th. - Worth watching: Short outings have been the pattern all season. As long as his workload stays capped, his outs line is worth checking first.

Blake Snell under 6.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Snell averages about 6 strikeouts a start (55 in 9 starts) because his outings run short, and the line needed 7. - What happened: He struck out 5, 1.5 under the line. The walks pushed his pitch count up fast, and he was out before he could get deep enough to threaten 7. - Worth watching: At 56 confidence this was a long shot that landed. A plus-money under on a starter who rarely sees the 5th is the kind of price we like.

Blake Snell under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-116 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Snell came in with a 1.90 ERA and 0 homers allowed in 42.2 innings, and his short outings limit how many runs he can be charged with. - What happened: Snell allowed 1 earned run on 3 hits, 0.5 under the line. That was the Dubon single in the 1st. Atlanta's other two runs were charged to Bubic and Edgardo Henriquez. - Worth watching: Another long shot at 63 confidence. The 5 walks show the risk, but a quick hook protects the under.

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ALT: Under 9.5 total runs (alt, targeted -230 or better): CASHED - Our read: The main total was 7.5, both staffs were led by lefties (Snell at a 1.90 ERA, Ray Kerr at 1.47), and the game would need 10 or more runs to lose. - What happened: The game finished with 5 total runs, 4.5 under the line. Neither team scored more than once in any inning. - Worth watching: Buying two runs of cushion on an already low playoff total is pricey but it held with room. Only at a number you set beforehand.

F5: Under 5.5 total runs (-215 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Snell was facing a Braves bullpen game opened by Kerr, who had a 1.47 ERA and a .150 opponent average in 18.1 innings. - What happened: It was 2-1 Atlanta through five, 3 total runs and 2.5 under the line. Kerr threw 2.2 scoreless innings with 4 strikeouts before handing it to the pen. - Worth watching: First-five unders hold up when both early arms are this hard to hit. Atlanta's bullpen-game plan kept fresh arms on the mound every few innings.

How the game played out

Atlanta used six pitchers. After Kerr, Grant Holmes allowed the Freeman homer, Dylan Lee got the win, and Didier Fuentes covered 3.2 innings with 3 strikeouts, allowing only the Muncy homer. On the other side, Roki Sasaki threw 2.0 scoreless innings and Edwin Diaz struck out 2 in a clean inning. Harris was the best bat in the game at 3-for-5.

Trends to watch

  • Snell's leash: 3.2 innings and 90 pitches here after 4.0, 1.0 and 5.2 in his last three. His outs and strikeout unders stay tied to that workload.
  • Atlanta's bullpen game: Kerr, Fuentes and Robert Suarez combined for 7.1 innings and allowed 1 run. That approach keeps first-five and full-game totals low.
  • The Dodgers' runs both came on solo homers, from Freeman and Muncy. Their other hitters were held without an RBI.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the alt line and the total, or see more at the MLB hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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