DARIMARKET
MLB · Game recap · Tue, Oct 6

Dodgers vs. Braves Recap: Yamamoto, Sale Props and Unders Cash

Final · Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Dodgers 3, Braves 1
Board plays on this game
8 of 10 hit. We post the misses too.

The Dodgers beat the Braves 3-1 in Game 3 of the NLDS and now lead the series 2-1. The game was scoreless until the 4th, when Enrique Hernandez hit a two-run homer to left that scored Andy Pages, and Freddie Freeman followed with a solo shot to right center for a 3-0 lead. Atlanta's only run came in the 5th, when Mauricio Dubon scored on a Drake Baldwin groundout. Yoshinobu Yamamoto took it from there with 7.0 innings and 10 strikeouts, and Tanner Scott and Edwin Diaz each threw a scoreless inning. Eight DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, most of them on the run totals and the two starters.

What cashed

Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-206 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Yamamoto had a 1.77 road ERA with a .480 OPS allowed, and he held Atlanta to 1 earned run over 6.1 innings on Aug 27. - What happened: He allowed 1 earned run on 4 hits and 1 walk over 7.0 innings, 1.5 under the line, on 98 pitches. - Worth watching: His road form held up again. When he is going deep like this, his earned-run under stays worth a look at a fair price.

ALT: Braves under 3.5 team total runs (alt, targeted -175 or better): CASHED - Our read: Yamamoto's road numbers, plus the Braves scoring exactly 3 in both NLDS games in LA. - What happened: Atlanta scored 1 run on 5 hits, 2.5 under the line. The run scored on a groundout, not a big hit. - Worth watching: Atlanta's only extra-base hit was an Ozzie Albies double in the 9th, and Matt Olson went 1-for-4. Team-total unders against top starters are worth tracking in this series.

Chris Sale under 1.5 walks allowed (-153 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Sale had walked 31 in 162.2 innings and issued 1 or fewer walks in 7 of his last 8 outings. - What happened: Sale walked 0 over 5.0 innings and 95 pitches, 1.5 under the line. - Worth watching: Control has been steady all season. This prop does not depend on how well he pitches overall, only on whether he stays in the zone.

Chris Sale 7+ strikeouts (-161 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Sale had 200 strikeouts in 162.2 innings (11.1 K/9) with 7 or more in 4 of his last 5 full starts. - What happened: Sale struck out exactly 7 in 5.0 innings, getting there before he left after the 5th. - Worth watching: He hit the number even in a short outing where he gave up 2 homers. The strikeout rate is the anchor here, but a quicker hook leaves less room.

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Michael Harris II over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-216 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Harris was 8-for-20 in the postseason with a hit in 4 of 5 games and hit .299 against righties, batting 5th against Yamamoto. - What happened: Harris went 1-for-4, enough for a 0.5 margin over the line. - Worth watching: He was one of only five Braves with a hit. His floor in a tough matchup is why this prop holds up.

NRFI (no run 1st inning) (targeted -140 or better): CASHED - Our read: Sale had allowed 4 first-inning runs in 27 starts, Yamamoto had a .655 first-inning OPS allowed, and neither lineup scored in the 1st in Game 2. - What happened: Both teams went scoreless in the 1st, and the game stayed 0-0 through three innings. - Worth watching: At 63 confidence this was a long shot that landed. With two aces on the mound it was a fair spot.

ALT: Dodgers under 4.5 team total runs (alt, targeted -230 or better): CASHED - Our read: Sale allowed a .540 OPS at Truist Park and shut out the Dodgers over 9 innings with 11 strikeouts on Aug 27. - What happened: LA scored 3 runs, 1.5 under the line, all of them in the 4th inning on two homers. - Worth watching: The Dodgers had 8 hits but only one scoring inning. The alt cushion covered a game where Sale gave up the long ball.

ALT: Under 7.5 total runs (alt, targeted -170 or better): CASHED - Our read: Games 1 and 2 landed on 8 and 5 runs, and this was Sale (2.16 ERA) against Yamamoto (2.53 ERA) with both bullpens rested. - What happened: The game finished with 4 total runs, 3.5 under the line. Neither team scored after the 5th. - Worth watching: Three games into this series, totals have landed on 8, 5 and 4. Alt unders with a run of cushion stay worth a look while these staffs line up.

How the game played out

Sale's line was 5.0 innings, 7 hits, 3 earned runs and 7 strikeouts, with both homers coming in the 4th. After that, Dylan Dodd, Dylan Lee, Brent Suter and Raisel Iglesias held the Dodgers scoreless the rest of the way. The LA bullpen allowed 1 hit and 1 walk over the last two innings.

Trends to watch

  • Yamamoto's workload: 7.0 innings and 98 pitches with 10 strikeouts. His innings and earned-run props are tied to that depth.
  • Run totals in this series: 8, 5 and 4 runs over three games. Both starters went at least 5.0 innings tonight, which kept the bullpens to short work.
  • Sale's control: 0 walks in Game 3. His walks under is about command, not results, so it is worth checking each start.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the alt line and the total, or see more at the MLB hub.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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