Padres vs. Brewers Recap: Chourio and Contreras Homers Decide It

The Brewers beat the Padres 3-2 in a game decided by two home runs. San Diego strung together three singles and a fielder's choice for 2 runs in the 2nd. Jackson Chourio tied it with a two-run homer in the 3rd, and William Contreras hit a solo shot in the 7th for the go-ahead run. San Diego outhit Milwaukee 9 to 7 but never scored again. Nine DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Under 8.5 total runs (alt, targeted -220 or better): CASHED - Our read: The main total was 7, Milwaukee allowed 618 runs this year, and Jacob Misiorowski held opponents to a .474 OPS at home. - What happened: The game finished with 5 total runs, 3.5 under the line. Nobody scored after the 3rd except Contreras. - Worth watching: An alt Under 1.5 runs above a 7 main total gives real room, but the price is steep, so only at a number you set beforehand.

F5: Under 4.5 total runs (-160 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Misiorowski's .157 opponent average is the lowest on record for a starter, and Robbie Ray was facing a Milwaukee lineup that ranked 13th in wRC+ vs lefties. - What happened: It was 2-2 after five innings, 4 runs and 0.5 under the line. All 4 came in the 2nd and 3rd. - Worth watching: This one cleared by a single run. First-five Unders lean on the starters, and both of these went early.

ALT: Padres under 3.5 team total runs (alt, targeted -170 or better): CASHED - Our read: San Diego faced Misiorowski (12.98 K/9), who has a 1.52 ERA in this park, and the main team total was 2.5. - What happened: San Diego scored 2, 1.5 under the line, both in the 2nd. Five Milwaukee relievers then covered 5 scoreless innings, including a bases-loaded escape in the 7th when Jackson Merrill flied out. - Worth watching: The Padres had traffic all night, so the cushion of the alt mattered. Worth a look when this bullpen is fresh.

NRFI (no run 1st inning): CASHED - Our read: Misiorowski had a .126 first-inning opponent average (10 runs in 30 starts), and Ray had allowed 11 first-inning runs in 30 starts. - What happened: Manny Machado doubled with two outs in the top of the 1st, then Misiorowski struck out Ty France. Ray retired Chourio, Brice Turang and Contreras in order. - Worth watching: At 61 confidence this was one of our long shots that landed. The first-inning splits on both starters keep it on the list.

Robbie Ray over 1.5 walks allowed (-140 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Ray walked 2 or more in 23 of 30 starts (84 walks in 165.2 innings), and Milwaukee draws walks on 10.6% of plate appearances. - What happened: Ray walked exactly 2, 0.5 over the line. Both came in the 3rd, Turang and then Contreras, right after the Chourio homer. Ray left with two outs and the bases loaded after 2.2 innings and 45 pitches. - Worth watching: Even in a short outing he got there. A pitcher with this walk rate against a patient lineup is an angle we would check again.

Jackson Chourio 1+ hits (-245 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Leading off against a lefty, Chourio hit .333/.404/.575 vs LHP and .333 over his last 10 games. - What happened: His one hit was the big one: a 420-foot two-run homer to left center in the 3rd. He went 1-for-4. - Worth watching: The price was heavy at -245, so this only fits at or under the pass number.

ALT: Brewers over 2.5 team total runs (alt, targeted -200 or better): CASHED - Our read: Milwaukee scored 832 runs (5.1 per game) and faced Ray, who had 27 walks in 43 innings over his last 9 starts. - What happened: Milwaukee scored exactly 3, 0.5 over the line. Chourio's homer brought in 2, and Contreras' 406-foot solo homer in the 7th was the third. - Worth watching: This cleared by one run, and the third came late against the San Diego bullpen. Close, but the read on Ray played out.

Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 strikeouts (-152 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: He has a 12.98 K/9, but finished under 9 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts on short pitch counts of 44 to 93. - What happened: Misiorowski threw 88 pitches over 4 innings and struck out 6, 2.5 under the line. - Worth watching: The pitch count was the whole story again. When his outings stay short, the strikeout ceiling comes down.

Jackson Chourio over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-134 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Chourio leads off and hit .333 with a .979 OPS vs lefties, and Ray walks 4.6 per 9, so men get on ahead of him. - What happened: One swing did it. The homer gave him 1 hit, 1 run and 2 RBI, a total of 4 and 2.5 over the line. Garrett Mitchell's infield single set it up. - Worth watching: Another 61-confidence long shot that landed. Combo props reward a leadoff man with power.

How the game played out

Misiorowski left after four innings, and Milwaukee's bullpen got the final 15 outs without a run. San Diego loaded the bases in the 7th and put the tying run at third in the 8th and came away empty both times. San Diego's first three relievers held Milwaukee scoreless from the 3rd through the 6th, but Contreras got to Adrian Morejon in the 7th.

Trends to watch

• Machado reached three times on 2 hits and a walk, and Dustin Harris also had 2 hits and a walk. The top of the San Diego order created chances.
• Jackson Merrill went 0-for-5 with 2 strikeouts and made the third out with the bases loaded in the 7th.
• Jake Bauers had 2 hits in 3 at-bats for Milwaukee, both singles to right.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the alt line and the player prop, or see more at the MLB hub.