Padres vs. Brewers Recap: Walk-Off Win, Unders and Outs Props Cash

The Brewers beat the Padres 4-3 on a walk-off in the bottom of the 9th. San Diego scored in the 1st when Ty France singled home Manny Machado with two outs, added a run in the 5th on a fielder's choice and a throwing error, and got another in the 7th on a France single. Milwaukee answered with a run in the 5th on Sal Frelick's single and another in the 7th on an error by second baseman Jake Cronenworth, but trailed 3-2 going to the 9th. Then Christian Yelich and Frelick drew walks, Gary Sanchez walked to load the bases, and Jackson Chourio singled to center to score two. Each team had 5 hits. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, and three of them were long shots that landed.

What cashed

ALT: Under 8.5 total runs (alt, targeted -220 or better): CASHED - Our read: The main total was 7, Game 1 ended 3-2, Logan Henderson owns a 1.84 home ERA, and Michael King threw 7 scoreless innings with 1 hit in his Wild Card start. - What happened: The game finished with 7 total runs, 1.5 under the line. It was 3-2 after eight innings, and the last 2 runs came on one swing in the 9th. - Worth watching: Sitting 1.5 runs above a 7 main total left room for the late rally. The price is steep, so only at a number you set beforehand.

F5: Under 4.5 total runs (-160 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Both starters are at their best early: King at 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, Henderson at 2.47 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with 110 strikeouts in 98.1 innings. - What happened: Through five innings it was 2-1 San Diego, 3 total runs and 1.5 under the line. The 5th produced both the Padres' second run and Milwaukee's first. - Worth watching: First-five Unders lean on the starters, and here both of them turned in a clean five. The cushion was real at 1.5 runs.

Michael King over 14.5 outs (-135 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: King averaged 5.8 innings over 32 starts, recorded 15 or more outs in 6 of his last 7 and went 7.0 in the Wild Card, and the San Diego bullpen had covered 5.1 innings in Game 1. - What happened: King finished 5.0 innings, which is 15 outs, 0.5 over the line. He allowed 3 hits and 1 run, struck out 6 and threw 72 pitches. After he hit Chourio to open the 6th, Yuki Matsui came in. - Worth watching: He cleared by exactly one out, so this only works at a number like -135. The workload history still points to 15 as a floor worth checking.

Logan Henderson under 15.5 outs (-108 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Henderson was making his playoff debut after going exactly 5.0 innings in each of his last 3 starts, and Milwaukee pulled Misiorowski after 4.0 innings and 88 pitches in Game 1. - What happened: Henderson finished 5.0 innings, which is 15 outs, 0.5 under the line. He allowed 2 hits and struck out 4 on 72 pitches. With France hit by a pitch to open the 6th, JoJo Romero relieved him. - Worth watching: At 64 confidence this was a long shot that landed. A short leash in a close playoff game fits this angle.

Padres under 3.5 team total runs (-135 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: San Diego scored 2 in Game 1, and Henderson held hitters to a .169 average and a .541 OPS at American Family Field this season. - What happened: San Diego scored 3, 0.5 under the line, one run each in the 1st, 5th and 7th. The Brewers' bullpen worked 4 innings after Henderson, and the Padres' only run in that stretch was France's 7th-inning single. - Worth watching: Another long shot at 63 confidence, and it cleared by a single run. A half-run margin means this one needs a pass number.

Logan Henderson under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-114 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Henderson allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts, holds righties to a .192 average, and San Diego's posted lineup had five right-handed bats. - What happened: Henderson gave up 2 runs but only 1 earned, 0.5 under the line. The earned run was France's 1st-inning single. The 5th-inning run scored after errors by Brice Turang and Cooper Pratt. - Worth watching: At 57 this was the lowest-confidence play of the six, and it landed as a long shot. Earned-run props are worth a look for starters with sharp ratios, since errors can turn runs into unearned ones.

How the game played out

Milwaukee committed 3 errors, two in the 5th and one in the 7th, but still came back. In the 9th, Mason Miller walked 3 and gave up the two-run single to Chourio, who finished 1-for-4 with 2 RBI. France was the Padres' best bat, going 2-for-3 with 2 RBI on singles.

Trends to watch

• Henderson again went exactly 5.0 innings, which matches each of his last 3 starts. His outs prop stays tied to how early Milwaukee goes to the pen.
• King's 15 outs came on 72 pitches, with 6 strikeouts and no walks. Matsui replaced him after he hit the first batter of the 6th.
• Frelick reached three times, on a single and 2 walks, and Yelich scored twice. Milwaukee's top of the order made the difference late.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the alt line and the total, or see more at the MLB hub.