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MLB · Game recap · Wed, Sep 30

Phillies vs. Braves Recap: Bohm Wins It in the 10th

Final · Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Phillies 4, Braves 3
Board plays on this game
9 of 9 hit.

The Phillies beat the Braves 4-3 in 10 innings on Wednesday to even their Wild Card series at 1-1. Atlanta led 3-1 after a two-run 7th, then Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper hit back-to-back home runs in the 8th to tie it, and Alec Bohm's solo shot in the 10th won it. Nine DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Cristopher Sanchez 5+ strikeouts (-343 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Sanchez hit 5+ strikeouts in 29 of 33 starts this season and fanned 5 Braves on Sep 4. - What happened: 6 strikeouts over 6.2 innings on 116 pitches. - Worth watching: At -343 this is a ladder floor, not a value bet. It only makes sense paired with a higher rung.

Cristopher Sanchez 6+ strikeouts (-172 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: He reached 6+ in 26 of 33 starts (231 K in 207 IP), struck out 10 Rays his last time out, and an elimination game meant a long leash. - What happened: The 6th strikeout got there with nothing to spare. - Worth watching: He also walked 5, which ran his pitch count up. Walks are the thing that can cut a strikeout night short.

Cristopher Sanchez over 17.5 outs (-137 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Sanchez had recorded 18+ outs in each of his last 6 starts, and the Phillies pen had used Jhoan Duran for 27 pitches the night before. - What happened: 6.2 innings is 20 outs, 2.5 over the line. He left with two outs in the 7th. - Worth watching: Outs props lean on the manager's hook. In a must-win game with a tired pen, that hook stayed long.

Tyler Mahle under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-233 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Mahle allowed 1 earned run in 13 innings over two September starts against Philadelphia and had a 2.74 ERA at home. - What happened: 7 innings, 6 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk and 6 strikeouts on 95 pitches. The only run was Harper's RBI single in the 1st. - Worth watching: Mahle has now handled this lineup three times. His earned-run under stays on our radar against Philadelphia.

ALT: Under 8.5 total runs (alt, worth it at -200 or better): CASHED - Our read: Sanchez (2.91 ERA) against Mahle (2.74 home ERA), and Game 1 landed at 8 runs. - What happened: 7 runs, and that includes an extra inning. It was 3-3 through nine. - Worth watching: The alt cushion is what made this safe. Extra innings are the risk you take on any full-game under.

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ALT: Braves under 4.5 team total runs (alt, worth it at -190 or better): CASHED - Our read: Sanchez holds lefties to a .171 average, and Atlanta had a .696 OPS against lefties. - What happened: Atlanta scored 3. Matt Olson singled in a run in the 1st, then Drake Baldwin doubled and Olson added a sacrifice fly in the 7th. Andrew Painter threw 3 scoreless innings to finish it. - Worth watching: The Braves drew 6 walks and still stayed under. Their bats against lefties remain the angle.

Bryce Harper over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-103 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Harper was hitting .298/.412/.585 against righties and cleared this line in 54% of his starts, batting 3rd against Mahle. - What happened: 2-for-5 with an RBI single in the 1st and a 418-foot solo homer in the 8th. That is 2 hits, 1 run and 2 RBI for 5 total. - Worth watching: Near even money on a 3-hole bat against a righty is a price we like.

Drake Baldwin over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-103 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Baldwin cleared this in 61% of his starts and 14 of his last 20, even with a lower average against lefties like Sanchez. - What happened: 2-for-5, including the RBI double in the 7th. 2 hits plus 1 RBI made 3. - Worth watching: Batting 2nd behind Ronald Acuna Jr. gives him RBI chances every night.

Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+281 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: A long shot. He had 45 homers, 30 of them against righties, and Mahle had allowed 20 HR in 149 innings. - What happened: Mahle kept him in the park, but Schwarber hit a 447-foot shot to right center in the 8th after Mahle left. He was 1-for-5 with 3 strikeouts. - Worth watching: Home run props are long shots by design. Keep the stake small, even on a 45-homer bat.

How the game played out

Mahle and Sanchez traded zeros from the 2nd through the 6th. Atlanta's bullpen gave up 3 runs in 3 innings after Mahle left, while Painter struck out 3 over 3 scoreless innings for Philadelphia. Bohm's homer in the 10th went 357 feet.

Trends to watch

  • Sanchez threw 116 pitches with 5 walks. If his control is off in his next start, his outs line gets tighter than his strikeout line.
  • Mahle went 7 innings on 95 pitches. Efficient outings like that keep his outs and earned-run props live.
  • Harper and Schwarber both homered off the Atlanta bullpen. With the series going to a Game 3, late-inning power from the top of this lineup matters.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these bets? See player props and alt lines, or check today's MLB board.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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