Phillies vs. Braves Recap: Harris Homer Sets Tone, Unders Cash

The Braves beat the Phillies 6-2 in the elimination Game 3 of a series that came in tied 1-1. Atlanta did its damage early. Michael Harris II hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the 1st off Aaron Nola, and Ozzie Albies added a two-run shot off Zack Wheeler in the 4th to make it 5-0. Philadelphia got one back in the 6th on an Alec Bohm groundout and another in the 8th on a Trea Turner sacrifice fly, with a Matt Olson solo homer in the 7th in between. Seven DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

F5: Under 5.5 total runs (-250 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Atlanta was running a bullpen game behind lefty opener Ray Kerr, Nola was on a short leash, and Games 1 and 2 each had 2 runs through five. - What happened: Five runs crossed in the first five innings, all of them Atlanta's: 3 in the 1st and 2 in the 4th. The Phillies were blanked through five. That is 0.5 under the number, the tightest cash of the night. - Worth watching: First-five unders with an opener on one side can work, but a single swing can eat the whole cushion. Price matters at -250.

ALT: Under 9.5 total runs (alt, targeted -220 or better): CASHED - Our read: The Phillies planned to cover the game with Nola, then Wheeler and a rested Jhoan Duran, and the first two games of the series landed at 8 and 7 runs. - What happened: The game finished with 8 runs, 1.5 under the line. Wheeler gave 4.0 innings with 2 earned runs and Duran threw a scoreless 8th with 2 strikeouts. - Worth watching: Deep, rested bullpens in a must-win spot kept the run count in a tight band across all three games.

ALT: Under 10.5 total runs (alt, targeted -330 or better): CASHED - Our read: Games 1 and 2 totaled 8 and 7 runs, and both clubs could empty fresh bullpens in a winner-take-all game. - What happened: Same 8 runs, 2.5 under. Atlanta used six pitchers and the Phillies used five. - Worth watching: The extra cushion costs a heavy price. It is a fit only when the main total already looks short.

ALT: Phillies under 4.5 team total runs (alt, targeted -190 or better): CASHED - Our read: Philadelphia scored 3 and 4 in Games 1 and 2, Kerr and Grant Holmes had held them to 2 earned runs in 16.1 innings in September, and the late Atlanta arms were all available. - What happened: The Phillies scored 2, 2.5 under. Kerr threw 3.1 scoreless innings and allowed 1 hit. Holmes went 2.0 innings with 1 run, and Chris Sale closed it with 1.1 innings and 3 strikeouts. The Phillies had 6 hits, two of them from Kyle Schwarber. - Worth watching: Kerr's opener role keeps showing up well against this lineup. Worth a look again when he starts a bullpen game.

Braves moneyline (-109 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Atlanta was 52-29 at home, won the season series 9-4, and drew Nola with a 4.67 ERA and 37 homers allowed. - What happened: The Braves led 3-0 after one and never trailed. Nola lasted 1.2 innings and gave up 3 earned runs. - Worth watching: A near pick'em price on the better home side held up. We would still pass past -112.

Michael Harris II 1+ hits (-234 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Harris was 4-for-8 in the series, hits .299 against right-handers and was batting 4th behind Olson against Nola. - What happened: He settled it in the 1st with a 387-foot homer to right center that scored Ronald Acuna Jr. and Olson. He went 1-for-3 with 3 RBI and is 5-for-11 in the series. - Worth watching: Hitting behind Olson gives him traffic early. The price was steep, so we would still pass past -250.

Matt Olson to hit a home run (+393 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Olson came in with 41 homers, 20 of them at Truist Park, and Nola had allowed 22 of his 37 homers to lefties. We flagged it as a long shot. - What happened: The long shot landed. Olson walked and scored in the 1st, then hit a 416-foot solo shot to center off Jonathan Bowlan in the 7th to make it 6-1. He finished 1-for-3 with 2 runs and 1 RBI. - Worth watching: Home run props stay long shots. His home split and a homer-prone starter made this one worth the small stake.

How the game played out

Philadelphia's lineup had little going. Schwarber reached three times with two hits and a walk, but Bryson Stott and J.T. Realmuto went hitless. The Phillies scratched across single runs in the 6th and 8th, both on outs, and Atlanta's bullpen never let a rally build.

Trends to watch

• Kerr added 3.1 scoreless innings here to the 2 earned runs he and Holmes allowed in 16.1 September innings against Philadelphia. He is the first name to check before an Atlanta bullpen-game under.
• Harris bats 4th behind Olson and keeps getting chances with runners on. His hit props are priced high for a reason.
• Nola got only five outs. Short leashes on Phillies starters push more innings to Wheeler and Duran, which matters for first-five and full-game totals.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. More on alt lines, totals, and the MLB hub.