Rays vs. Yankees Recap: Martinez Props, Fried Ks and the Under Cash

The Rays beat the Yankees 4-3 to finish a 3-0 series sweep. Both teams were scoreless through two innings. Tampa Bay scored first in the 3rd on a Jonathan Aranda single, New York answered with a Ben Rice single, and the 4th went the same way: a Ryan Vilade solo homer, then a Spencer Jones double that scored Anthony Volpe. Victor Mesa Jr. broke the 2-2 tie in the 6th with a two-run homer off Max Fried. Volpe's double in the bottom half cut it to 4-3, after a home run call on the field was overturned for fan interference, and nobody scored after that. Seven DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, three of them on Nick Martinez.

What cashed

Nick Martinez under 1.5 walks allowed (-278 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Martinez walked 1 or fewer in 26 of 31 starts (1.3 per 9), and a short playoff leash limits how many batters he faces. - What happened: He walked 1 in 3.2 innings, 0.5 under the line. - Worth watching: His control held, and the early hook did the rest. Walk unders on low-walk starters with short leashes are a clean fit in October.

Nick Martinez under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-180 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Martinez had a 3.10 ERA over 180 innings, and DraftKings set his outs at 12.5, so a short leash capped his earned-run exposure. - What happened: He allowed 2 earned runs on 5 hits over 3.2 innings, 0.5 under the line. Both runs came in the 3rd and 4th. - Worth watching: The short outing is what protected this one. When the outs line is low, the earned-run under gets that same cushion.

Nick Martinez 3+ strikeouts (-176 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Martinez reached 3 or more strikeouts in 24 of 31 starts, the Yankees strike out 24.8% of the time against righties, and they were without Aaron Judge. - What happened: He struck out exactly 3 in 3.2 innings on 63 pitches. - Worth watching: He got there before the hook came. With a short leash, a strikeout number this low is the one that fits.

Max Fried 4+ strikeouts (-227 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Fried had 4 or more strikeouts in 18 of 20 starts plus 6 in his Wild Card start, and Tampa Bay had a .679 OPS against lefties. - What happened: He struck out 7 with no walks over 5.2 innings, 3.5 over the line, even while giving up 2 homers. - Worth watching: His strikeout floor held on a night when the runs did not. Strikeout props track his stuff, not the scoreboard.

Junior Caminero over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-245 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Caminero recorded a hit, run or RBI in 79% of his 159 games, and with Fried holding righties to .209 we stayed at the 1+ number. - What happened: He went 1-for-4 and scored on Mesa's homer in the 6th, 2 hits plus runs plus RBIs, 1.5 over the line. - Worth watching: Batting 3rd puts him in run-scoring spots even on a quiet night at the plate. The 1+ combo prop leans on that.

ALT: Under 8.5 total runs (alt, targeted -190 or better): CASHED - Our read: The Yankees faced elimination down 2-0, had scored 2 runs in two games and played without Judge, with Fried (2.80 ERA) against Martinez (3.10 ERA). - What happened: The game finished with 7 total runs, 1.5 under the line, and nobody scored after the 6th. - Worth watching: Both lineups did more than the first two games suggested. The alt cushion is what covered it.

NRFI (no run 1st inning) (targeted -120 or better): CASHED - Our read: Martinez allowed 6 first-inning runs in 31 starts and Fried 7 in 20, and Games 1 and 2 had one first-inning run between them. - What happened: Both teams went scoreless in the 1st, and the game stayed 0-0 until the 3rd. - Worth watching: At 59 confidence this was a long shot that landed. Two starters with clean first-inning numbers made it a fair spot.

How the game played out

Fried's line was 5.2 innings, 7 hits, 4 earned runs and 7 strikeouts, with both homers hurting him. After Martinez, the Tampa Bay bullpen of Ian Seymour, Griffin Jax, Cam Booser, Kevin Kelly and Bryan Baker covered 5.1 innings and allowed 1 run on 2 hits. Paul Blackburn and David Bednar kept the Rays off the board from the 7th on.

Trends to watch

• Martinez's leash: 3.2 innings on 63 pitches. His unders and low strikeout numbers both fit that workload.
• Fried's strikeouts: 7 with 0 walks. His strikeout props held up even when he gave up 4 runs.
• The Rays bullpen covered more than half the game. Short starts put more weight on relief arms in run-total bets.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the player prop and the alt line, or see more at the MLB hub.