Hawks vs. Pacers Recap: Pacers +13.5 Cashes in a 4-Point Game
Atlanta beat Indiana 108-104 on Monday night. The Hawks won the first quarter 37-29 and led 68-56 at the half, with a lead that reached 15. Indiana won both second-half quarters, 23-19 and 25-21, but never got all the way back. Four DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game: the Pacers alt spread, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum and Luguentz Dort.
What cashed
ALT: Pacers +13.5 (-160 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: The main line was Pacers +10.5. Atlanta had failed to win by 14+ in 8 of its last 10, and Indiana had covered +13.5 in 6 of its last 8 home games, so we bought the extra points. - What happened: Indiana lost by 4, covering by 9.5. The Pacers outscored Atlanta 48-40 after halftime. - Worth watching: Indiana played only six players, with Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith among those who did not play. Short rotations that still compete at home are where the alt cushion earns its price.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27+ points + rebounds + assists (-122 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Alexander-Walker cleared 27+ PRA in 6 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20. The -122 price implied 55% against about 63% from recent games, so this was a long shot that landed. - What happened: He scored 34 on 9-of-15 from three, with 4 rebounds and 4 assists for 42 PRA. That cleared by 15.5 in 31 minutes. - Worth watching: Fifteen threes in 31 minutes is a heavy shooting role. If that volume sticks, his points-driven lines stay in play.
ALT: CJ McCollum 12+ points (-423 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: McCollum cleared 12+ points in 6 of 7 games this season, averaging 14.4. - What happened: He scored 13 on 4-of-17 shooting, clearing by 1.5. He made up for the cold shooting with 12 assists and 9 rebounds. - Worth watching: He nearly had a triple-double while shooting poorly. His assist and rebound lines may offer a sturdier angle than points.
ALT: Luguentz Dort 6+ points (-209 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Dort cleared 6+ points in 9 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20. The -209 price implied 68% against about 76% from recent games. - What happened: He scored 14 on 5-of-10 shooting and 4-of-6 from three in 31 minutes, clearing by 8.5. - Worth watching: Thirty-one minutes as a starter keeps him in range of a low points line, and he got there on threes.
How the game played out
Atlanta made 23 threes on 51 attempts, while Indiana went 8-of-34 from deep. The Pacers made up ground inside, scoring 54 points in the paint and going 20-of-23 at the line. Jay Huff led Indiana with 22 points, Quenton Jackson added 20, and Braden Smith had 19 points and 10 assists. Indiana's largest lead of the night was 2.
Trends to watch
- Indiana's six players logged between 35 and 45 minutes each. Heavy minutes like that boost counting stats for whoever plays, so props on Smith, Huff and Jarace Walker are worth a check when the rotation is that thin.
- Atlanta took 51 threes. Alexander-Walker, Corey Kispert and Dort combined for 17 makes, so three-point props on Hawks shooters fit this style.
- McCollum ran the offense with 12 assists. When his shot is off, the passing still shows up.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. See our guides on point spreads, alt lines and implied probability, or visit the NBA hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.