DARIMARKET
NFL · Game recap · Sun, Oct 11

49ers vs. Seahawks Recap: Pineiro Wins It Late, Evans Goes for 113

Final · San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
49ers 32, Seahawks 29
Board plays on this game
8 of 12 hit. We post the misses too.

The 49ers won 32-29 in Seattle on an Eddy Pineiro 44-yard field goal with 1:56 left. It was a sloppy, back-and-forth game: San Francisco turned it over 3 times and Seattle 4 times. The 49ers led 21-13 at the half after Gracen Halton recovered a fumble in the end zone with 13 seconds left. Seattle answered with 13 straight points in the third quarter, then San Francisco retook the lead on a Brandin Cooks touchdown and a two-point catch by Mike Evans. Eight DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Christian McCaffrey 60+ rushing + receiving yards: CASHED Christian McCaffrey 10+ rushing attempts: CASHED - Our read: McCaffrey had 60+ scrimmage yards in all 4 games and 10+ carries every week, and Kyle Juszczyk being out pushed more backfield work his way. - What happened: 11 carries for 68 yards and an 11-yard touchdown run, plus 3 catches for 15. That is 83 scrimmage yards, 23.5 over the line. The carry line cleared by 1.5. - Worth watching: The carries were closer than usual in a game full of short possessions. The scrimmage-yard floor held up better than the carry count.

Mike Evans 30+ receiving yards: CASHED - Our read: Evans had 30+ receiving yards in every game this season, and Purdy's volume is steady. - What happened: 7 catches on 10 targets for 113 yards and a 2-yard touchdown, plus the two-point conversion on the go-ahead score in the fourth. He cleared the line by 83.5. - Worth watching: 10 targets led the 49ers. He is the top option in this passing game right now.

Brock Purdy 25+ pass attempts: CASHED - Our read: Purdy had 25+ attempts in 9 of his last 10, and the book had him at 32.5. - What happened: 29 attempts, 19 completions and 2 TD passes. The line cleared by 4.5. - Worth watching: Low alt attempt lines give room even in a game with lots of turnovers and short drives.

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George Kittle 3+ receptions: CASHED - Our read: Kittle had 4+ catches in three straight and was off the injury report. - What happened: 5 catches on 6 targets for 24 yards. - Worth watching: The catches are steady even when the yards are not. Reception floors fit him better than yardage.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5+ receptions: CASHED Jaxon Smith-Njigba 70+ receiving yards: CASHED - Our read: JSN had 5+ catches and 70+ yards in all 4 games, and San Francisco was missing Nick Bosa and S Marques Sigle. - What happened: 5 catches on 8 targets for 102 yards, a long of 38 and a 16-yard touchdown that put Seattle ahead in the third. The catch line cleared by 0.5, the yardage line by 32.5. - Worth watching: His yards come in big chunks. The yardage alt had far more room than the catch count did.

Emanuel Wilson over 1.5 receptions (-147 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Wilson is Seattle's lead back with Zach Charbonnet out and Jadarian Price on IR, and the 49ers had allowed the most running back receptions in the league (31). - What happened: 2 catches on 2 targets for 11 yards. He also carried 20 times for 61 yards and a 2-yard touchdown. This one carried lower confidence on our board and still landed. - Worth watching: 20 carries says he owns the backfield. The passing-game role was thin, so this line is a closer call than his rushing work.

How the game played out

Seattle's Jason Myers kicked five field goals, including the 40-yarder that tied it 29-29 with 6:55 left. San Francisco then drove 43 yards for Pineiro's winner, and Seattle's last drive ended on downs.

Trends to watch

  • Evans drew 10 targets and caught the two-point try. He is Purdy's go-to read right now.
  • Wilson handled 20 carries for Seattle. His carry volume should stay heavy while Charbonnet is out.
  • JSN had a 38-yard catch and averaged over 20 yards a grab. His yardage props have more room than his catch props.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Learn how player props work and what an alt line is, or see more at /nfl.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

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