Bears vs. Falcons Recap: Swift Scores Twice, Under 56.5 Holds

The Bears beat the Falcons 31-23 in Atlanta, and the game was mostly decided by halftime. Chicago scored touchdowns on its first two drives, led 21-7 at the break and pushed it to 31-7 early in the fourth quarter. Atlanta answered with two late Kyle Pitts Sr. touchdown catches, both followed by two-point conversions, to make the final look closer than the game felt. Chicago held the ball for 40:08 and won the turnover battle 3-1. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

D'Andre Swift 60+ rushing + receiving yards (-396 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Swift had cleared 60 scrimmage yards in all 5 games this season and in 9 of his last 10, with books hanging his main line at 84.5 to 85.5 and no injury tag this week. The alt number gave us a big cushion.
• What happened: Swift finished with 70 scrimmage yards: 16 carries for 44 yards plus 4 catches on 5 targets for 26 yards. That cleared 59.5 by 10.5. He also punched in two short touchdowns, a 4-yard run late in the first quarter and a 2-yard run with 1:26 left in the half.
• Worth watching: The rushing efficiency was low at 2.8 yards a carry, but the volume and the passing-game work carried him over. He had 20 touches here (16 carries, 4 catches); as long as that workload holds, the alt scrimmage number stays a reasonable look.

ALT: Under 56.5 total points (-179 DraftKings / -180 FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: The main total sat at 52.5, and games between these two had stayed under 56.5 in 16 of the last 20, including 8 of 10 this season.
• What happened: The teams combined for 54 points, 2.5 under the number. It got tense late. Atlanta scored 16 points in the final 9:34, with both touchdowns followed by two-point tries that converted. Chicago's long, slow drives early helped keep the total in check.
• Worth watching: Alt unders built on a few points of cushion over the main total can still sweat late when a trailing team starts throwing. Here the extra four points over the main line were the difference.

How the game played out

Caleb Williams was efficient, completing 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and a touchdown to Colston Loveland on the opening drive. Luther Burden III caught all 8 of his targets for 95 yards. Atlanta ran only 12 times and converted 3 of 12 third downs, and Michael Penix Jr. did most of his damage late, finishing 19 of 33 passing for 225 yards and 3 touchdowns. Chicago did leave points on the field with 12 penalties for 133 yards.

Trends to watch

• Swift has two rushing touchdowns from inside the 5 here, and Chicago scored touchdowns on 4 of its 5 red zone trips. His goal-line role is worth tracking in touchdown markets.
• Burden's 8 catches on 8 targets point to a big role in the short passing game; that kind of catch rate is worth noting for receptions markets.
• Atlanta's run game got only 12 attempts while trailing, which kept its offense pass-heavy late and pushed the scoring into garbage time.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alt numbers? Read about the alt line and the player prop, or head back to the NFL hub.