Bears vs. Packers Recap: Alt Under and D'Andre Swift Cash

The Packers beat the Bears 31-7, and Chicago's five turnovers were a big part of the story. Green Bay scored on its first two drives, a 42-yard Jordan Love pass to Christian Watson and a 7-yard MarShawn Lloyd run, for a 14-0 lead. Chicago answered with a 16-play, 78-yard drive that ate 9:10 and ended on a 1-yard D'Andre Swift run. The Bears gave the ball away on three interceptions and two lost fumbles. Watson scored again from 53 yards in the third quarter, Trey Smack added a 35-yard field goal, and Lloyd added a 4-yard run early in the fourth to make it 31-7. Nobody scored over the final 14:55. Two DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

D'Andre Swift 60+ rushing + receiving yards (alt, targeted -250 or shorter): CASHED - Our read: With Caleb Williams inactive and backup RB Kyle Monangai also out, Tyson Bagent started at quarterback and Swift was set up as the lone workhorse. He had 60+ scrimmage yards in all 4 games this season and in 9 of his last 10. - What happened: Swift ran 9 times for 43 yards and a touchdown and caught 4 of 5 targets for 30 yards. That is 73 scrimmage yards, 13.5 over the line. His 1-yard run capped Chicago's only touchdown drive, the 16-play march in the second quarter. - Worth watching: The line cleared, but the workload was lighter than the read expected. Swift had 13 touches, and Roschon Johnson took 5 carries and 5 catches on 7 targets. In games where Chicago trails, his target count is the number to watch.

ALT: Under 51.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: Backup QB Tyson Bagent was starting for Chicago, and Green Bay was missing three interior linemen (Monk, Jennings, Banks). DraftKings had the main total of 47.5 already shading toward the under, and the alt gave us extra room. - What happened: The teams combined for 38 points, 13.5 under the line. Chicago produced one touchdown, and its quarterbacks, Bagent and Case Keenum, combined for three interceptions. Green Bay was done scoring by early in the fourth quarter. Its next two drives ended on field goal tries that did not go through, and a failed extra point after Watson's second touchdown kept another point off the board. - Worth watching: An alt under that sits several points above the main total gives you a cushion against one team running away with it. It is worth a look when one side has a backup quarterback, but remember the price is shorter for that cushion.

How the game played out

Love threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns, both to Watson, who finished with 143 receiving yards. Matthew Golden added 123 receiving yards for Green Bay, which outgained Chicago 428 to 246. Bagent threw for 87 yards with two interceptions and Keenum threw for 108 with one, and the Bears were sacked four times for 30 yards.

Trends to watch

• Swift's touch count: 9 carries and 5 targets in a lopsided game. In games where Chicago can stay close, his carries should matter more; in blowouts, his receiving work carries the prop.
• Chicago's ball security: Five turnovers is a short field for the other side and fewer drives for the Bears. Opponents of a backup-quarterback Chicago team are worth a look on spreads and team totals.
• Green Bay's passing: Watson and Golden both topped 100 receiving yards. The Packers' pass game is the side to watch on their props, more than the run game, which averaged under 3 yards a carry.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more, read about the total, alt lines, and visit the NFL hub.