Broncos vs. Chargers Recap: Late Turnovers Swing It to Denver

The Broncos beat the Chargers 23-17 in Los Angeles by scoring the last 13 points. Denver led 10-3 at the half, but the Chargers took a 17-10 lead in the third on a Hayden Rucci touchdown catch and a 42-yard Kimani Vidal run right after a Denver fumble. The fourth quarter flipped it back: Bo Nix found Courtland Sutton for the tying score, then a Chargers fumble and a Justin Herbert interception set up two Wil Lutz field goals. Eight DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Broncos ML (-185 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: The Chargers had not won yet, had scored 14, 14, 16 and 23 points, and were expected to be without Ladd McConkey. Denver's banged-up secondary was the risk. - What happened: Denver won by 6 after trailing by 7 in the third. This was a lower-confidence play on our board that landed. - Worth watching: Short road favorites against a struggling offense can work, but this one needed late turnovers to get there.

ALT: Chargers under 24.5 team total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: LA had topped out at 23 points this season and was missing both starting tackles, Quentin Johnston and Derwin James. - What happened: The Chargers scored 17, landing 7.5 under the line. Herbert was sacked 5 times and LA turned it over 3 times. - Worth watching: Team total unders fit when an offense is this shorthanded up front.

ALT: Under 46.5 total points (alt, targeted -170 to -200): CASHED - Our read: The Chargers' injuries on the line and at receiver, plus a run of low-scoring Denver and LA games, pointed under. - What happened: 40 total points, 6.5 under the line. Denver had 224 total yards and LA had 237. - Worth watching: Moving the total up above the main number gave real cushion in a game that stayed tight and slow.

Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (-129 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Herbert had thrown a pick in all 4 games and was playing without both starting tackles against a ball-hawking Denver defense. - What happened: Brandon Jones picked him off in the fourth quarter, which set up Denver's final field goal. Another lower-confidence play that landed. - Worth watching: Pressure is the driver here. While LA's line is this thin, his INT props stay on the radar.

Bo Nix 15+ completions: CASHED Bo Nix 1+ passing TDs: CASHED - Our read: Nix had 15+ completions in 9 of his last 10 and a TD pass in every game, and LA was missing three defensive backs. - What happened: 16 completions on 27 attempts, clearing the line by 1.5. His one touchdown pass was the 5-yarder to Sutton that tied it 17-17 with 8:53 left. - Worth watching: Both cleared by a small margin. Denver converted 1 of 12 third downs, so his volume can dip when drives stall.

J.K. Dobbins 10+ rushing attempts: CASHED - Our read: Dobbins had 10+ carries in 9 of his last 10, and Denver figured to lean on the run as a road favorite. - What happened: 18 carries for 68 yards and a 2-yard touchdown in the first quarter. He cleared the line by 8.5. - Worth watching: He is the clear lead back. Carry lines in the low teens stay worth a look when Denver is favored.

Omarion Hampton 30+ rushing yards: CASHED - Our read: Hampton had 40+ rushing yards in every game this season and was off the injury report. - What happened: 14 carries for 33 yards, clearing the line by 3.5. - Worth watching: Vidal's 57 rushing yards and Herbert's 54 took a share of the ground game. A lower alt line was the right call here.

How the game played out

Denver's offense managed only 224 total yards, but the defense forced 3 turnovers and the Broncos turned all three into points, including Dobbins' first-quarter touchdown. Lutz added field goals from 34, 19 and 36 yards.

Trends to watch

• Dobbins carried 18 times. His workload looks steady as Denver's lead back.
• Herbert was sacked 5 times behind a depleted line. That pressure is worth tracking for his turnover props.
• The Chargers' backfield split work between Hampton and Vidal, which caps Hampton's rushing ceiling.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. Read up on what a total is and how the moneyline works, or see more at /nfl.