DARIMARKET
NFL · Game recap · Thu, Oct 8

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Recap: Irving Runs for 165 in Tampa Upset

Final · Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16
Board plays on this game
22 of 33 hit. We post the misses too.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Dallas Cowboys 24-16 on Thursday night, winning outright as a road underdog. Tampa ran for 241 yards, held the ball for 39:21 and never turned it over, while Dallas gave it away three times. Bucky Irving carried the night with 165 rushing yards. 22 DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Buccaneers +17.5: CASHED - Our read: Tampa had lost its four games by 6, 4, 7 and 3. - What happened: Tampa won by 8, clearing the line by 25.5. - Worth watching: Close-loss teams with a run game earn big alt cushions.

ALT: Buccaneers over 12.5 team total points: CASHED - Our read: Tampa had scored 13+ in 10 straight games. - What happened: 24 points, 11.5 clear. - Worth watching: A low alt team total holds while the floor holds.

ALT: Buccaneers under 27.5 team total points: CASHED - Our read: Tampa had not topped 27 all year, with a rookie QB on a short week. - What happened: 24 points, 3.5 under. - Worth watching: Pairing an over and an under on one team total brackets the range.

ALT: Over 37.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: Dallas games had finished at 48, 57, 65 and 64. - What happened: 40 points, 2.5 over. Pickens' 18-yard TD with 5:26 left got it there. - Worth watching: Ten under the main total still needed a late score.

ALT: Under 58.5 total points: CASHED - Our read: Dallas would need 32+ with Tampa near a season high. - What happened: 40 points, 18.5 under. - Worth watching: High alt unders work when one side has a clear ceiling.

ALT: Dak Prescott 225+ passing yards: CASHED - Our read: 279, 276 and 335 in his prior three games, against a secondary without Winfield and Morrison. - What happened: 24/42 passing, 316 yards, 91.5 over. - Worth watching: A trailing script pushed volume up.

ALT: Dak Prescott 20+ completions: CASHED - Our read: 20+ in all of his last 10 home games. - What happened: 24 completions, 4.5 over. - Worth watching: Volume carries it even on a rough night.

ALT: Dak Prescott 30+ pass attempts: CASHED - Our read: 34, 31, 40 and 45 attempts this season. - What happened: 42 attempts, 12.5 over. Dallas ran 13 times. - Worth watching: When Dallas trails, attempts climb fast.

ALT: Dak Prescott 1+ passing TDs: CASHED - Our read: A TD pass in all four games. - What happened: One, the 18-yarder to Pickens capping a 99-yard drive. - Worth watching: It came late on a two-interception night. Parlay leg only.

ALT: George Pickens 40+ receiving yards: CASHED - Our read: 40+ in three of four games against a thin Tampa secondary. - What happened: 9 catches on 13 targets, 130 yards and a TD, 90.5 over. - Worth watching: 13 targets made him the top option.

ALT: Ryan Flournoy under 5.5 receptions: CASHED - Our read: Under 5.5 in all of his last 10 home games. - What happened: 3 catches, 90 yards, long of 48. - Worth watching: Big plays, low volume. Catch unders fit his role.

These plays were on the board before kickoff.Join the board free →

ALT: Jake Ferguson 3+ receptions: CASHED - Our read: 3+ in each of his last three games. - What happened: 3 catches on 6 targets, 19 yards. - Worth watching: Landed on the number.

Javonte Williams anytime TD (about -200 to -230): CASHED - Our read: 5 rushing TDs in four games as the goal-line back. - What happened: A 1-yard run on the opening drive. - Worth watching: Goal-line role intact even with few carries.

ALT: Javonte Williams 50+ rushing + receiving yards: CASHED - Our read: Cleared 50 in 9 of his last 10. - What happened: 45 rushing plus 17 receiving for 62, 12.5 over. - Worth watching: Receiving work protects the floor.

ALT: Javonte Williams under 99.5 rushing yards: CASHED - Our read: Under 100 in 13 straight games. - What happened: 12 carries, 45 yards, 54.5 under. - Worth watching: Still a solid parlay leg.

Javonte Williams under 19.5 rushing attempts: CASHED - Our read: 20+ needed a blowout clock-kill. - What happened: 12 carries, 7.5 under. - Worth watching: Carry unders fit while Dallas leans on the pass.

ALT: Javonte Williams 2+ receptions: CASHED - Our read: 2+ catches in all four games. - What happened: 2 catches on 3 targets, 17 yards. - Worth watching: Right on the number. Three targets is thin.

ALT: Bucky Irving 35+ rushing yards: CASHED - Our read: 15-17 carries in three straight games. - What happened: 21 carries, 165 yards, a 72-yard long and a 1-yard TD, 130.5 over. He also caught a 5-yard TD. - Worth watching: Dallas allowed 241 team rushing yards.

ALT: Jalon Daniels 150+ passing yards: CASHED - Our read: 148 in his first start, with Dallas missing Joey Porter Jr. and Cobie Durant. A 64-confidence long shot that landed. - What happened: 19/25 passing, 189 yards, a TD, no interceptions, 39.5 over. - Worth watching: Efficient and clean.

Chris Godwin Jr. over 28.5 receiving yards (-114 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: 7 targets in Daniels' first start, against a defense ranked last in net yards per pass attempt. - What happened: 3 catches, 37 yards, 8.5 over. - Worth watching: Every target caught. Efficient, not high volume.

ALT: Chris Godwin Jr. 3+ receptions: CASHED - Our read: 3+ in 9 of his last 10. - What happened: 3 catches on 3 targets. - Worth watching: Right on the number. Egbuka saw 9 targets.

ALT: Cade Otton 3+ receptions: CASHED - Our read: 3+ in 8 of his last 10. - What happened: 3 catches on 4 targets, 25 yards. - Worth watching: A low-volume passing game caps it.

How the game played out

Dallas led 10-7 at the half. Tampa opened the third with a two-play, 86-yard drive (Irving's 72-yard run, then Egbuka's 14-yard TD run). A 64-yard catch by Tez Johnson set up Irving's 1-yard TD, a field goal followed, and Tampa led 24-10. Dallas answered with a late TD, but the two-point try failed.

Trends to watch

  • Irving had 21 carries in a game Tampa controlled. Track his workload.
  • Pickens drew 13 targets and Egbuka 9.
  • Dallas ran 13 times. Williams' carry unders fit while that holds.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to alt lines? Read alt line and player prop, or see the board on /nfl.

21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.

More NFL recaps

Today's NFL picks →

DARIMARKET

Pull up to the board.

The next slate is already on the board, ranked by confidence, with live calls during the games. It's free to join.

Join DARIMARKET free