Colts vs. Steelers Recap: Jaylen Warren Rolls, Jones Unders Cash

The Steelers beat the Colts 34-22 in a game that stayed close for three quarters. Indianapolis moved the ball, holding it for 32:00 with Spencer Shrader kicking five field goals, but scored only one touchdown on three red zone trips. Pittsburgh hit big plays instead. Jaylen Warren took an Aaron Rodgers pass 80 yards for a score on the first snap of a drive, then broke a 50-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. After Shrader cut it to 24-22 early in the fourth, Rodgers found Pat Freiermuth from 17 yards out and Chris Boswell added a 54-yard field goal. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

Jaylen Warren 60+ rushing + receiving yards (alt, targeted -250 or shorter): CASHED - Our read: Rico Dowdle (toe) was reported unlikely to play, which made Warren the lead back. He came in with 73, 77, 176 and 126 scrimmage yards in four games and 17 carries in each of the last two. - What happened: Warren ran 15 times for 101 yards and a touchdown and caught all 6 of his targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. That is 188 scrimmage yards, 128.5 over the line. The 80-yard catch in the first quarter cleared the number by itself. - Worth watching: When Warren is the clear lead back, he gets work as a runner and a receiver, and that double usage is what makes a scrimmage-yards floor attractive. Watch the backfield news each week, because the read depends on him carrying the load.

Daniel Jones under 1.5 passing TDs (-220 at Novig): CASHED - Our read: Jones had 3 touchdown passes in 4 games because Jonathan Taylor handles the red zone work, with 6 rushing scores. Pittsburgh had T.J. Watt and his 4.5 sacks, and Indy was missing WR Ashton Dulin and TE Will Mallory, with Keenan Allen questionable. - What happened: Jones threw for 267 yards on 44 attempts and no touchdowns. Indianapolis reached the red zone three times and scored one touchdown, a 1-yard Tyler Warren run. The rest of its points came from Shrader's leg. - Worth watching: A team that finishes drives on the ground or settles for field goals keeps its quarterback's touchdown count low. As long as that pattern holds in Indianapolis, Jones passing-TD unders stay on our list.

Daniel Jones under 24.5 completions (alt, targeted -250 or shorter): CASHED - Our read: Jones had 84 completions in 4 games, 21 a game, and had stayed under 24.5 in 9 of his last 10. Indy runs through Taylor, and two pass catchers were out. - What happened: This one was tight. Jones completed 24 of 44 passes, so it cleared by half a completion. He got close because he threw 44 times, but 20 of those throws fell incomplete. - Worth watching: Indy trailed for almost the whole game, and Jones threw a lot. A completions under looks better in games the Colts are expected to control, and riskier when they figure to chase.

How the game played out

Indianapolis went 4 of 15 on third down, and that was the story of its day. Drive after drive stalled into field goals of 57, 56, 22, 40 and 28 yards, and the Colts' last two possessions ended on downs. Pittsburgh needed only 22 rushing attempts and scored touchdowns on both of its red zone trips. Rodgers completed 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to Freiermuth.

Trends to watch

• Warren's receiving role: 6 targets and 6 catches on top of 15 carries. A back with that kind of passing-game work has more than one way to clear a yardage line.
• Indy's red zone finish: One touchdown on three trips, and that score came on the ground. When Taylor and the run game finish drives, Jones touchdown props lean under.
• Jones' attempts: 44 throws is a lot for a quarterback whose team wants to run. Game script matters for his completion and yardage props, so check the spread before playing them.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on the bets above, see player props, alt lines, and the NFL hub.