Cowboys vs. Packers Recap: Lamb Catches 9, Javonte Williams Scores
The Packers beat the Cowboys 23-13 on Sunday night, and the game was mostly decided by halftime. Green Bay opened with a 14-play, 90-yard touchdown drive, added a Trey Smack field goal, and got a 1-yard Jordan Love touchdown run with 23 seconds left in the half to go up 17-0. Dallas threw interceptions on back-to-back first-half drives, then spent the second half chasing. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.
What cashed
CeeDee Lamb 5+ receptions (-326 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Lamb had 5+ catches in 4 of 5 games this season and 8 of his last 10, with his main line at 6.5 in a game totaled at 53.5. - What happened: Lamb caught 9 passes for 70 yards on 18 targets, clearing the 5+ number by four catches. Dak Prescott threw 54 times while Dallas played from behind, and Lamb drew more targets than anyone on the field. - Worth watching: 18 targets is a heavy share even for Lamb. When Dallas is trailing and throwing 50+ times, his catch floor stays one of the more stable numbers on the board.
Javonte Williams anytime TD (-220 at FanDuel): CASHED - Our read: Williams had scored in 4 of 5 games this season, and Green Bay was without defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford. - What happened: Williams punched in a 1-yard run with 9:19 left in the third quarter to cap a 9-play, 46-yard drive and cut the lead to 17-7. He finished with 11 carries for 41 yards and added 2 catches for 9 yards. - Worth watching: Dallas ran it only 15 times as a team, and Williams still got the goal-line carry. That short-yardage role is what makes his touchdown price worth checking each week.
Jake Ferguson under 3.5 receptions (-158 at DraftKings): CASHED - Our read: Ferguson had 3 or fewer catches in 4 of 5 games this season and 8 of his last 10, averaging 2.7, and Green Bay ranked 3rd against tight end receptions. - What happened: Ferguson caught 2 passes for 13 yards on just 3 targets, finishing 1.5 catches under the line even with Prescott attempting 54 passes. At 64 confidence, this was the long shot of our three, and it landed. - Worth watching: Brevyn Spann-Ford caught 4 passes on 5 targets and Ryan Flournoy caught 7 on 9, so Dallas spread its short targets around. If that split holds, Ferguson's catch unders stay in play.
How the game played out
Green Bay moved the chains on third down, converting 11 of 18 attempts, and Smack added field goals of 44 and 29 yards in the second half. Matthew Golden led the Packers with 6 catches for 104 yards and the opening touchdown. Dallas turned it over on downs twice in the second half and was flagged 11 times for 108 yards before Prescott found Flournoy for a 6-yard score with 44 seconds left.
Trends to watch
- Lamb drew 18 of Prescott's 54 attempts. Volume like that keeps his reception props live in any game script where Dallas has to throw.
- Dallas finished with 48 rushing yards on 15 attempts. Williams' value is more about touchdown chances near the goal line than raw yardage right now.
- Ferguson has seen a light target share with Spann-Ford and Flournoy both busy underneath. That is worth tracking before his next receptions line.
Stats are from the ESPN box score. New to these markets? Read up on the player prop and the anytime touchdown, or see the latest board on the NFL hub.
21+. Research and commentary, not a sportsbook. Past calls don't guarantee future results.