Dolphins vs. Jets Recap: Willis to Douglas Holds Off New York

The Dolphins held off the Jets 28-25 on Sunday. Miami built a 21-7 halftime lead behind two Malik Willis scores, one passing and one running, and an Ollie Gordon II touchdown run. New York closed to 21-17 in the fourth before Willis hit Caleb Douglas for a 63-yard touchdown with 4:44 left. Geno Smith answered with a touchdown pass and a two-point conversion to Mason Taylor, but the Jets got no closer. Three DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game.

What cashed

ALT: Over 32.5 total points (-310 at FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Over 32.5 had cashed in 18 of the last 20 team games across both sides, including 9 of 11 this season.
• What happened: The teams combined for 53 points, 20.5 over the line. The total was already at 28 by halftime.
• Worth watching: Both offenses were efficient here: Miami went 3 of 3 in the red zone and the Jets went 3 of 4. A low alt total in a matchup like this is a solid parlay anchor, but the price is too short to play alone.

ALT: Greg Dulcich 15+ receiving yards (-189 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Dulcich had cleared 15 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 games and 13 of his last 15, and -189 implied about 65% against roughly 83% from those games.
• What happened: He led Miami with 5 catches for 86 yards and a long of 32, clearing the line by 71.5.

ALT: Greg Dulcich 2+ receptions (-238 at DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Dulcich had cleared 2 catches in 9 of his last 10 games and 12 of his last 15, and -238 implied about 70% against roughly 80% from recent games.
• What happened: He caught all 5 of his targets, 3.5 over the line.
• Worth watching: Dulcich led Miami in targets and turned them into 17.2 yards per catch. Willis threw only 21 passes, so his share of a small passing game is what to track.

How the game played out

Miami controlled the clock, running 41 times for 156 yards and holding the ball for 34:36. Gordon carried 25 times for 103 yards. Willis was efficient, completing 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. On the other side, Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Omar Cooper Jr. caught 5 passes for 115 yards, with a long of 60.

Trends to watch

• Gordon's 25 carries were a heavy workload. His rushing attempts line is the cleanest way to back it.
• Braelon Allen ran 17 times for 104 yards and added 6 catches on 7 targets for the Jets. That mix of carries and targets makes his combined yardage line worth a look.
• Mason Taylor caught 5 of 6 targets for 2 touchdowns and also caught the two-point conversion. The Jets found their tight end twice for scores, so his touchdown props are worth checking.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. For more on totals, see our total and parlay guides, or the full board on /nfl.